Mets vs Red Sox Moneyline Analysis
There are several exciting games to watch out for in the second weekend coming out of the 2023 MLB All-Star Break. One of the most interesting will be the conclusion of a three-game series between the New York Mets (45-51) and the Boston Red Sox (51-46) in Fenway Park. There has been an established rivalry between the Mets and the New York Yankees, as well as, the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Mets and the Red Sox, however, don’t have a lot of history between the two teams.
Both teams play in their respective loaded divisions, which is evident by their currently placed fourth in their standings. The Red Sox have seen some positive performances from both sides of the field and gotten some big wins. The Mets, on the other hand, might be one of the most disappointing teams in the MLB due to the failed expectations of their talented roster.
The moneyline for Saturday's game is set to have the Red Sox as the favorite at -120, with the Mets being the underdog at +100. On Sunday's game, the moneyline be on the Mets at -105 and the Red Sox at -115.
The Red Sox are one of the most efficient batting teams in the entire MLB. They are a team that doesn't try to consistently get the big hits that many loaded rosters with power hitters try to establish. They like on base early and often.
Bostin ranks third in the AL in runs accounted for (486), second in hits accounted for (877), first in double-base hits (222), 11th in home runs accounted for (105), seven in stolen bases (66), 10th in walks (306), fifth in fewest strikeouts (792), second in batting average (.263), third in on-base percentage (.331) and fourth in slugging percentage (.432).
Their production is spread out through their entire lineup at the plate. The Red Sox have eight players who have accounted for 34 runs this season with five of them possessing a batting average of .250. Two of their top batters are left-fielder Masataka Yoshida (104 hits, 51 runs, .317 BA, and .378 OBP) and designated hitter Justin Tuner (103 hits, 60 runs, .259 BA, and .358 OBP). Third baseman Rafael Devers leads the team in home runs accounted for (23) and RBIs accounted for (73).
The Mets took big-time measures to incorporate big-time free agents and veteran players in an attempt to get them a World Series. Much like the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres, the Mets are underperforming with that roster. The Mets are not an established batting team, despite having a talented roster.
The Mets are ranked 10th in the NL in runs accounted for (426), 13th in hits accounted for (749), 15th (last in double-bases accounted for (126), fourth in home runs (121), sixth in stolen bases (76), ninth in walks (324), third in fewest strikeouts (758), 12th in batting average (.237), 11th in on-base percentage (.318) and 12th in slugging percentage (.400).
There is no doubt that the Mets possess some incredible power-hitters like first baseman Pete Alonso, who has accounted for 66 hits, 26 home runs and 63 RBIs. The biggest problem is the need for more consistency to get on base. Most of their best big hitters have a batting average below .230 and an on-base percentage below .320.
Mets vs Red Sox Over/Under Analysis
The over/under for Saturday's game is set at 9.5, the second-highest over/under in Saturday's slate of games, according to DraftKings. The pitching teams of the Red Sox and the Mets leave more to be desired. As a team, the Red Sox and the Mets are not efficient in terms of production, but they do possess talented pitchers they can fall back on if they need to break a slump.
The Red Sox are ranked 10th in the AL in ERA (4.35), 12th in hits allowed (829), 10th in runs allowed (414), 13th in home runs allowed (126), fifth in walks allowed (283), and 10th in strikeouts delivered (837). One of the biggest concerns for the Red Sox is that their closing and relief pitchers are either more efficient or put into more comfortable situations.
The Mets are ranked eighth in the NL in ERA (4.36), third in fewest hits allowed (778), ninth in runs allowed (437), 12th in home runs allowed (123), 12th in walks allowed (350), and seventh in strikeouts delivered (824). The Mets don't have a lot of youth in starting pitchers as they are trying to go win-now, but Kodia Senga (30), Max Scherzer (38), and Justin Verlander (40) are easily three of the best starting pitchers for New York.
On Saturday, the Red Sox are set to start Kutter Crawford (3.74 ERA in 67.1 innings pitched) at the mound while the Mets are going with Kodia Senga (3.20 ERA in 95.2 innings pitched). In Sunday's game, the Red Sox will be starting James Paxton (3.51 ERA in 59 innings pitched) while the Mets are going with Max Scherzer (3.99 ERA in 94.2 innings pitched).
Head-to-Head: New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox
| New York Mets | Head-to-Head | Boston Red Sox |
Buck Showalter | Managers | Alex Cora |
| Leaders |
|
Tommy Pham (.272) | Batting Avg | Masataka Yoshida (.317) |
Pete Alonso (26) | Home Runs | Rafael Devers (23) |
Pete Alonso (63) | RBIs | Rafael Devers (73) |
Brandon Nimmo (.360) | OBP | Masataka Yoshida (.378) |
Brandon Nimmo (95) | Hits | Masataka Yoshida (104) |
Max Scherzer (8) | Wins | Brayan Bello (7) |
David Robertson (2.13) | ERA | Chris Martin (1.52) |
Kodai Senga (122) | Strikeouts | Nick Pivetta (94) |
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