MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Aaron Judge Early Favorite to Repeat as Home Run King

• Aaron Judge has led the majors in home runs in two of the last three seasons, hitting 58 homers in 2024.

• Shohei Ohtani was the runner-up for home run leader in 2024 with 54 home runs. He and Judge were the only players to hit more than 44 home runs last season.

The calendar has flipped to 2025, which means the countdown to the start of the 2025 MLB season can begin. Among the many futures bets that are on the table with odds already available is the home run leader. With 58 home runs last season, Aaron Judge of the Yankees is the reigning home run king heading into the 2025 campaign.

Judge easily won this race last season, leading the majors in homers for most of the season. Shohei Ohtani made a late run, ultimately finishing with 54 home runs. However, Ohtani rarely looked like a serious threat to surpass Judge. Equally important, nobody else hit more than 44 home runs in 2024, putting those two in a class of their own.

Of course, everyone is back to zero for the start of 2025. The race for the home run leader this year will start anew in March. That being said, there are some early favorites to be the home run leader, most notably Judge and Ohtani. But let’s look beyond the obvious candidates and take a closer look at all of the serious preseason contenders to lead the big leagues in home runs in 2025.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

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MLB Home Run Leader Predictions and Favorites

The betting market for the home run leader in 2025 is open. It will remain available throughout the season, although the odds will fluctuate based on how things play out. Below you will find the top preseason candidates to lead the majors in home runs. But once the season begins, check back frequently for an updated look at who the leading favorites are and who is our best bet to win the award.

Aaron Judge

It’s no surprise that Judge is the preseason favorite to lead the majors in home runs yet again. He smashed 58 homers last season and 62 when he had the same distinction in 2022. No hitter in baseball understands how to use their raw power as well as he does. Yet, there are a couple of caveats with Judge. For starters, he does have a track record for injuries despite playing at least 148 games in three of the last four seasons. Also, the lineup around him looks a little different with Juan Soto no longer with the Yankees.

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Shohei Ohtani

At first glance, Ohtani is undoubtedly the biggest competition for Judge. He’s coming off a career-high 54 home runs, and at age 30, he’s very much in the prime of his career right now. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ohtani have another 50-home run season and perhaps make a run at 60 homers. Of course, he had the benefit of only being a DH last year. Ohtani will return to the mound in 2025, so it remains to be seen if pitching every five days could take away some of his power at the plate.

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Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber will always be an interesting sleeper to be the home run leader. Nobody in baseball steps up to the plate with the intention of hitting a home run more than him. That being said, his average was up and his strikeouts were down just a little last season. His home runs were also down in 2024, as he managed just 38 after hitting 46 and 47 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, it might be better to take a wait-and-see approach with Schwarber to see his approach at the plate early in the season and whether or not he will return to being an all-or-nothing hitter.

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Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis has remarkably short odds to be the home run leader considering the fall in his numbers the past couple of seasons following a breakout campaign in 2021. Multiple stints on the IL last season limited him to just 102 games with Tatis hitting 21 homers. But with a slugging percentage under .500, a full season of games wouldn’t have put him anywhere near the top of the home run race. There are also rumblings of the Padres trading him before the season. Granted, Tatis is just 26 and hit 42 homers in 2021, so the power potential is there, although everything will have to fall into place for him.

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Pete Alonso

As of late January, Alonso remains a free agent, so it’s unclear what team he’ll be hitting home runs for in 2025. His 34 home runs last season were also a little bit of a disappointment despite some postseason heroics for the Mets. Nevertheless, Alonso is a former home run king who has the raw power to hit 50-plus homers, even though he hasn’t reached that mark since his rookie season. Also, until Alonso has a contract and a team, it’s tough to project how his season might unfold with regard to his power numbers.

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Yordan Alvarez

The baseball world is wondering if Alvarez has reached his full potential as a power hitter. The 27-year-old has all kinds of strength. Yet, he’s never hit more than 37 homers in a season. The 35 homers that Alvarez hit in 2024 is around his average. In Houston, Alvarez certainly plays in a hitter-friendly park, which is why most people have expected his power numbers to explode at some point. However, it remains to be seen if Alvarez can take his power to another level.

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Anthony Santander

Santander deserves some credit for finishing a distant third in the home run race last season with 44 homers. But since he had never hit more than 33 homers in any season before that, one has to wonder if last year was an outlier or not. Santander signing with the Blue Jays during the offseason is another factor to consider. Rogers Centre isn’t necessarily a friendly park for home run hitters, although Camden Yards in Baltimore wasn’t either. Obviously, Santander has 40-homer potential. But if Judge, Ohtani, or someone else reaches 50 homers, it’s unclear if Santander can match that level.

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Juan Soto

Soto was fourth in the majors with 41 homers last season, so he warrants mention as a contender to be the home run leader in 2025. Of course, it’s a little easier for left-handed hitters to hit home runs in Yankee Stadium than at Citi Field, so moving from the Bronx to Queens may not benefit his home run total. Also, last year was the first time Soto reached 40 homers in a season. That being said, he’s still just 26 years old. Soto should be moving into his prime and could be about to fulfill his power potential. With 40 homers being a realistic target, he should at least be looked at as a sleeper to be the home run king in 2025.

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MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Aaron Judge

Before the 2025 season begins, Judge is the best bet to be the home run leader yet again. His injury history remains a concern, but no hitter in baseball has come close to showcasing the same level of consistent power that he has over the last several years. No matter who is hitting around him, Judge is dangerous at the plate and always a threat to hit a home run, even if he’s not selling out to hit a homer. Every other contender seems to have questions and a lower upside than Judge, which is why he’s our preseason pick to be the home run leader in 2025.

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MLB Home Run Leader History

For as long as baseball has been played, home runs have been one of the most exciting parts of the game. Therefore, there has always been great interest in which players have the most home runs. Thus, there is betting interest in who will be the home run leader next year.

Past MLB Home Run Leaders

How to Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the MLB Home Run Leader

When betting on the MLB Home Run Leader, bettors tend to overlook the process of choosing the best sportsbook. After all, different sportsbooks tend to offer different odds, different features, and different promos. Therefore, it’s a good idea to compare and contrast multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet.

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