Friday’s MLB schedule features an intriguing game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers, two teams that hope to be participating in the playoffs this October. If the season ended today, the Brewers would be the NL Central winners while the Phillies would be the top Wild Card team in the National League. Both teams would also enter the postseason with a lot of momentum, as both finished August strong. Naturally, both teams will want to keep it going when they meet Friday night for the first game in a three-game series.
The Phillies ended August by winning seven of their last nine games. That stretch immediately followed a stretch when they dropped five of seven, so it’s safe to say that Philadelphia is back on track. The reigning National League champs now have a healthy lead atop the Wild Card standings and begin the month of September 15 games above .500 despite being just 33-33 on the road this year.
As for the Brewers, they are hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak after dropping back-to-back games to the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. Of course, before those two losses, the Brew Crew had won nine in a row and 13 of 16. The Brewers spent most of August seizing control of a competitive NL Central. They now begin September with a three-game lead over the Cubs and six games ahead of the Reds. Obviously, Milwaukee would prefer to win the division, although the Brewers are in good shape for a Wild Card spot if the Cubs or Reds can catch them.
Despite being division leaders at the moment, the Brewers are slight home underdogs on Friday. DraftKings lists Milwaukee’s moneyline at +105 compared to Philadelphia’s moneyline of -125. The game also has an over/under of just 7.5 runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Predictions
The Phillies are favored on the road largely because of their recent hot streak and because Zack Wheeler is on the mound. Wheeler earned his 10th win of the season in his last start and is rocking a 3.59 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP this year. He was even better than that in August, pitching to a 3.00 ERA across his five starts. Wheeler has allowed two runs or less and pitched at least six innings in five of his last seven starts, bringing remarkable consistency to the Philadelphia rotation. Somehow, the Phillies were just 2-3 in his five starts in August. However, dating back to June, Philly is 10-4 in Wheeler’s last 14 starts.
Wheeler should also be able to depend on a fair amount of run support on Friday. The Phillies just scored 26 runs during a three-game series against the Angels earlier this week. In fact, during their 7-2 stretch, the Phillies have scored at least six runs in seven of those nine games, although they were just 5-2 when scoring six or more runs. Nevertheless, Rhys Hoskins is the only notable absence from the Philadelphia lineup at the moment. More importantly, the team's stars are performing like stars at the moment. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper have combined for 20 home runs in the team’s last 12 games with the rest of the roster combining for another 12 long balls during that time. In those 12 games, Harper is batting .432 with an OPS of 1.509 while Turner and Schwarber both have an OPS over 1.200.
Milwaukee Brewers Predictions
Alas, that red-hot Philly lineup will run into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball with Freddy Peralta starting for Milwaukee. Peralta was the winning pitcher in all five of his starts in August, pitching to a 2.10 ERA during that time. Dating back to the start of July, the Brewers are 8-1 in games that Peralta has started. His ERA has dropped from 4.70 to 3.95 across those nine starts. In other words, Peralta is locked in right now and performing at a high level.
To be fair, there is some concern about the Milwaukee lineup after the Brewers were shut out on Tuesday and scored just two runs on Wednesday. On the other hand, they also averaged 7.1 runs per game during their nine-game winning streak, so the Brew Crew isn’t far removed from a team-wide hot streak. While Milwaukee has just one player with more than 20 home runs this year, Christian Yelich and William Contreras have produced at a high level all year. Carlos Santana and Mark Canha have also proven to be helpful additions at the trade deadline while Willy Adames has gotten hot lately, giving the Brewers a surprising amount of depth in their lineup. With that deeper lineup backing up Peralta, the Brewers have good value as a home underdog on Friday against a Philadelphia team that’s been inconsistent and unreliable on the road this season.
Phillies vs Brewers - Over/Under Analysis
With the way Wheeler and Peralta have performed lately, it’s not surprising to see the over/under at just 7.5 runs. Normally, there would be good value to go over 7.5 total runs because there isn’t much room for error. However, Wheeler and Peralta are both capable of pitching deep into the game without allowing more than a run or two. Plus, both teams had an off-day on Thursday, so they could be a little rusty, especially against elite pitching. That points to a pitcher’s duel, making under 7.5 total runs the best bet.
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