Best YRFI Bets Today, October 16

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Over 0.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings)

Game of the ALCS between the Texas Rangers at the Houston Astros was a surprisingly difficult opportunity for both teams at the plate. The Rangers took game one after scoring once in the second and once in the fifth inning. 

It is surprising to see two of the top batting teams in the league be held to a low-scoring game. The Rangers were the top-ranked team in the AL in runs (881), hits (1470), home runs (233), walks (599), batting average (.263), on-base percentage (.337), slugging (.452) and OPS (.790). The Astros were third in runs (827), second in hits (1441), fifth in home runs (222), second in strikeouts (1241), third in batting average (.259), second in on-base percentage (.331) and third in slugging percentage (.437).

In Houston's 3-1 ALDS series win over the Minnesota Twins, the Astros scored in the first inning in two of their first three wins of the series. The Twins scored in the first inning in game two of the series when Minnesota won 6-2.

The Rangers only scored once in the previous five postseason games before facing the Astros. They are ranked 18th in the MLB in runs scored in the first inning (0.51). The Rangers are a team that scores later in the game by developing a rhythm.

Nathan Eovaldi (1.32 ERA in 13.2 postseason innings played) will start in his third postseason game this season for the Rangers. Framber Valdez (10.38 ERA in 4.1 postseason innings played) allowed five runs in the 6-2 game two loss to the Twins. There will be more opportunities for runs to be scored within the first inning, but more so from the Rangers’ side.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Zach Gallen (R) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Of both the conference championship games to be played on Monday, the game one matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies should be the game that will likely feature a run in the first inning.

The Diamondbacks are ranked seventh in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.59) while the Phillies are 10th in the MLB (0.59). Both teams are highly efficient at the plate and are more reliable in developing a rhythm.

While the Diamondbacks didn't score in the first inning of the NLWS round over the Milwaukee Brewers, they were able to start off with huge starts in the first two wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the game one 11-2 win, Arizona scored six runs in the first inning. In the 4-2 win in game two, they scored three runs in the first inning. 

While the Phillies are efficient in accounting for runs in the first inning. They have only done so in the game two 5-4 NLDS win over the Atlanta Braves.

Neither team has had the need to attempt to develop a rhythm early in a series. This NLCS will drive out the need for both teams to get an early start to get the advantage.

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