In a battle between the current AL Central and AL East leaders, expect the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees to open up the scoring early against a pair of pitchers who have struggled with keeping runners off the bases. While that takes place, we also fade Patrick Corbin against the Rockies as Colorado’s offense has quietly played at a competitive level by possessing an above-average contact rate.
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After winning his first Cy Young Award in 2023, the Yankees Gerrit Cole has yet to resemble anything close to his former self after missing a period of time with an injury. It was expected Cole would need some time to shake off the rust as most pitchers do after getting injured, yet he has made enough appearances since making his return from injury to turn him into a fade target as he continues to struggle on the mound.
In 10 games played, Cole enters the contest against the Guardians with an ERA of 4.15, a WHIP of 1.365, and a FIP of 4.20. That is a drastic difference from his 2023 campaign, finishing the year with an ERA of 2.63, a WHIP of 0.981, and FIP of 3.16. While positive regression is looming, Cole is still an instant fade target until he rounds back into dominant form as we also get to simultaneously back the elite Yankees offense.
The term elite may not do the Yankees' offense justice as they continue to rank near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. A brunt of their success comes from their formidable top of their order, a unit that fields current AL MVP betting favorite Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Both are elite batters in their own right and provide the Yankees an instant source of production from the opening pitch.
Every bit of their offensive production will be on display against the Guardians' Gavin Williams as he continues to struggle with limiting opposing offensive production in his minimal appearances so far this season. In nine games played, Williams takes the mound with an ERA of 5.02, a WHIP of 1.419, and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Expect the Yankees to get off to another hot start off the bats of an elite top of their order.
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Staying in the afternoon slate, we also focus on the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals as Patrick Corbin is set to take the mound. Corbin has made plenty of appearances in our daily YRFI series as he continues to play as one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, entering the contest with an ERA of 5.92, a WHIP of 1.574, a FIP of 4.56, 168 Hits Against, and 89 Earned Runs Allowed.
While the Rockies may seem like an unfavorable unit to back due to their horrific record, their offense has actually been quietly productive as they rank above league average in Team Total Hits and near average in Total Runs Scored and RBIs. The issue for Colorado’s offense is that their Hits are far and few in-between as they also rank well below league average in On Base Percentage.
On the other side of the field, the Nationals' lowly offense gets the opportunity to play at a more competitive level as they are set to face off against the Rockies Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has had a lackluster 2024 campaign, taking the mound with an ERA of 4.59 and WHIP of 1.414. It also does not bode well for Quantrill that he is surrounded by the worst defense in the league, a unit that ranks dead last in Defensive Efficiency.
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