Best YRFI Bets Today: Expect Kevin Gausman’s Struggles to Continue

Friday’s slate features one of our fade targets for our daily YRFI series when the Toronto Blue Jays' Kevin Gausman takes the mound to battle it out against the Tampa Bay Rays. We then focus on the nightcap main event when the Cincinnati Reds' young core looks to round back into form against the Los Angeles Dodgers. For more information about the YRFI market and what factors make them worth a wager, take a look at our breakdown of what are YRFI bets.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Zach Eflin vs. Kevin Gausman (3:07 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel

Saturday’s slate marks the return of one of our favorite fade targets when Kevin Gausman takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. Gausman was originally thought of as a contender for the Cy Young Award going into the season, but it was quickly apparent that something was off for the superstar pitcher as his numbers have declined since the preseason.

News broke out from his camp that something was ailing Gausman, narrowing it down to what they called a shoulder soreness. Instead of getting surgery, the Blue Jays withheld Gausman for a majority of Spring Training in hopes it would get better. He only made one appearance at the very end, playing at an underwhelming rate. His soreness may be a sign of something more as Gausman has yet to round back into form since making his first appearance at the end of Spring Training.

Gausman now enters the contest with an ERA of 4.95, a WHIP of 1.514, 37 Total Strikeouts, 10 Batters Walked, 45 Hits Allowed, and 20 Earned Runs Against in eight games played. Not exactly ideal metrics for a player who was pegged as a Cy Young contender heading into the season. His struggles are poised to continue as he faces off against a Rays offense that ranks above average in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage.

As for the Blue Jays, their offense has underwhelmed since the start of 2024 as they rank below average across the board for most hitting metrics. An oddity for a lineup that features star contact hitter Bo Bichette and slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Luckily for them, they are in a position to build some momentum against the Rays' Zach Eflin who comes into the contest with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.132.

Bet on Over 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Graham Ashcraft vs. Walker Buehler (9:10 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-104) at FanDuel

Later in the night we target the YRFI in the matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers as positive regression looms large for the Reds offense. This unit was poised to be one of the more explosive offenses in the league off the bats of Elly De La Cruz and Jonathan India, yet their lineup as a whole have severely underwhelmed by ranking near dead last in Team Total Hits, On Base Percentage, Runs Scored, and RBIs.

They now get the opportunity to round back into form and build some momentum against the Dodgers Walker Buehler who has yet to show any signs of positive production. Buehler comes into the contest with an ERA of 7.36, a WHIP of 1.773, six Strikeouts, 11 Hits Allowed, and six earned runs allowed in just two games played. That’s an average of nearly two runners on base per inning, meaning the Reds are a single away from scoring a run and cashing the YRFI should Buehler continue to struggle.

As for the Dodgers, their offense has paced the rest of the league in most offensive metrics and now get the opportunity to pad their lead against the Reds Graham Ashcraft. MVP front runners Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are poised to find success right away against Ashcraft who comes into the contest with an ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.443.

Bet on Over 0.5 Run (-104) at FanDuel

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