Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees - Zach Eflin vs. Nestor Cortes (1:05 PM, EST)
Over 0.5 Run (-109) at FanDuel
Like we do when Patrick Corbin takes the mound, Nestor Cortes has thrust himself into instant fade territory as he continues to regress this season. While his overall numbers are better as a whole than Corbin, his hyper-aggressiveness to throw across the plate has left him prone to early scoring to the benefit of the YRFI.
It is worth noting that Cortes has steadily improved in his last two outings, but his overall metrics still make him worth a wager. Cortes goes into this matchup with an ERA of 4.50, a WHIP of 1.136, 19 strikeouts, 20 hits allowed, five batters walked, and 11 earned runs against in four games played. His number of games played already this season is especially intriguing as most pitchers make their fourth appearance at this point of the season.
While five games hardly spells potential burnout, his short window between appearances will wear him down over the full course of the season. As for this matchup, any signs of slowing down will be immediately punished as he faces a strong top of the Rays batting lineup. A lineup that features an elite blend of power and contact ability with Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena kicking things off.
Speaking of the Rays, they trot out Zach Eflin who is also making his fifth appearance this season. Like Cortes, Eflin is also a very aggressive pitcher who prefers to deal a majority of his damage across the middle of the plate. Eflin comes into the contest with an ERA of 4.63, a WHIP of 1.200, 20 strikeouts, 26 hits allowed, two batters walked, and 12 earned runs against.
Eflin will be in a very uncomfortable position heading into this matchup as his own aggressiveness may come back to bite him against the lethal Yankees top of their order. Juan Soto possesses a keen eye that can extend at-bats should Eflin try to avoid him, putting pressure on the pitcher to avoid putting him on base with Aaron Judge up next. Expect Eflin to try and continue to punch out across the middle with disastrous results and early-inning runs.
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins - Reese Olson vs. Bailey Ober (2:10 PM, EST)
Over 0.5 Run (+110) at FanDuel
While the previously mentioned matchup between the Rays and Yankees features two above average hitting teams, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins have drastically under performed with their at bats per preseason expectations. Nevertheless, positive regression looms large for these two teams, especially with both of them facing an underwhelming pitcher in this matchup.
Starting with the Twins, they field Bailey Ober who has had a forgettable start to his 2024 campaign. Ober goes into this matchup with a lowly ERA of 6.57, a WHIP of 1.459, 15 hits allowed, three batters walked, and nine earned runs against. He also only has 11 total strikeouts, indicating that he has struggled to punch opposing batters out in order to avoid dangerous contact situations.
As for the Tigers, they go deep into their lineup with Reese Olson making his fourth appearance this season. While he has fared far better than his counterpart with just an ERA of 3.86, he has also flirted with disaster with a high WHIP metric of 1.469. That is nearly two batters on base per inning, meaning the Twins may find themselves with someone in scoring position to potentially cash this YRFI.
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