It’s a new week for the MLB season, taking the mid-week spotlight while the NBA and NHL transition into their playoffs. Monday’s slate features an abundance of games with two of them sticking out for a potential wager on the YRFI. This addition to our daily series targets a crop of underwhelming pitchers while they have to find answers in a pinch against batting lineups that are bound to positively regress back towards the mean.
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We kick off the daily YRFI slate with a duel between two severely underwhelming pitchers as both Louie Varland and Cole Irvin have struggled to round into competitive form. Their low level of play hasn't been just from the start of the regular season as they have mightily struggled throughout spring training as well.
Starting with the Twins Louie Varland, he kicked off his year by finishing the preseason with an ERA of 6.30, a WHIP of 1.300, 14 hits allowed, four batters walked, and 14 earned runs against. His regular season marks have only fallen off a cliff with his ERA dropping to 9.00, WHIP up to 2.000, 13 hits allowed, five batters walked, and nine earned runs against.
His regressing WHIP is especially inviting to fade against as his mark of 2.000 indicates that opposing teams are getting a runner into scoring position with a man on second. The Baltimore Orioles field elite contact batters at the top of their lineup and have played below their preseason expectations. Against a pitcher who has struggled to keep opposing batters off the bases, expect a bounce-back performance early from the Orioles' dangerous batters.
Speaking of the Orioles, they trot out Cole Irvin who has struggled with his early season starts so far this season. In two games played so far, Irvin has an ERA of 8.10, a WHIP of 1.900, 14 hits allowed, five batters walked, and nine earned runs against. Like Varland, Irvin’s high WHIP indicates that the Twins will be in a very favorable position to get multiple runners on base and in scoring position.
Positive regression also looms large for the Minnesota Twins as their offense has severely underwhelmed in 2024. An oddity as they have plenty of talent with a history of success, yet the Twins are dead last in the league in total hits, batting average, and bottom five in on-base percentage. Don’t let the marks tell the whole story as the top of their order is more than capable of punishing Irvin who has struggled with his command.
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Shortly after the Twins and Orioles game, the first inning kicks off for the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays with two more underwhelming pitchers taking the mound. While their numbers are slightly better than the two previously mentioned pitchers, both Patrick Sandoval and Zach Eflin are still very vulnerable to being punished early with their lack of command and inability to keep batters off the bases.
Starting with Sandoval, his struggles have been pretty consistent for the duration of the 2024 season as he finished spring training with an ERA of 7.15 and a WHIP of 1.941. Since regular season play, he now has an ERA of 6.57, a WHIP of 1.865, 16 hits allowed, has walked seven batters, and given up nine earned runs.
As for the Rays, they bring out Zach Eflin who is already making his fourth appearance so far this season. He comes into the game with an ERA of 6.35, a WHIP of 1.294, 20 hits allowed, two batters walked, and 12 earned runs against. The Angels as a whole may be weak on paper, but their top four batters still feature Mike Trout and Taylor Ward who both possess MLB Home Run Leader power at a moment's notice.
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