Best YRFI Bets Today: Fade This Cy Young Award Candidate

Our daily YRFI series rolls into Thursday with some momentum after a 2-0 day. Thursday’s slate may be small, but there are still two YRFIs that immediately stick out and are worth a wager. Cy Young candidate Freddy Peralta faces a red-hot Reds batting lineup, while the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics both look to get the scoring started early against two underwhelming pitchers.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds - Freddy Peralta vs. Nick Martinez (1:10 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (+102) at FanDuel

It’s never settling on the stomach to take a YRFI against a pitcher who is considered a Cy Young candidate, but that is exactly what we are doing when the Milwaukee Brewers battle it out against the Cincinnati Reds. This afternoon's NL Central showdown may feature some early fireworks, especially with the Reds batters being able to match the pitching production of the Brewer’s Freddy Peralta.

Peralta has been dominant since the start of the regular season, currently boasting an ERA of 3.09, a WHIP of 0.600, 15 strikeouts, five hits allowed, two batters walked, and four earned runs against in just two games played. A sharp contrast from his spring training splits after finishing the preseason with an ERA of 7.20, a WHIP of 1.667, and 12 earned runs against.

While his WHIP of 0.600 is certainly alarming as it indicates that he averages less than one runner on base per inning, the top of the Reds batting order is more than capable of punishing the aggressive pitcher. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are both elite contact batters, excelling at plugging the gaps in coverage and getting into scoring positions.

As for the Reds' defense, they have fared far worse than their offense as they roll into 2024 still searching for answers on the mound. This was a lingering issue in 2023 and a major reason why they fell apart late in the year. They now trot out Nick Martinez, a seasoned pitcher who has gotten off to a rough start in his 2024 campaign.

Martinez has struggled to keep batters off the base, coming into the game with an ERA of 7.20, a WHIP of 1.600, 14 hits allowed, two batters walked, and eight earned runs against. Opposing offenses have had no issue with getting multiple runners on base, putting themselves in scoring position early and often to deal damage against the struggling pitcher.

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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers - JP Sears vs. Jon Gray (2:35 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel

The reigning World Series champions Texas Rangers have gotten off to a quiet 7-5 start, yet are leading their division with an opportunity to add to it against the lowly Oakland Athletics. A big reason for their early season success stems from their defense, ranking well above average in ERA. The issue in this matchup is that starting pitcher Jon Gray has yet to play his part, severely underwhelming so far in 2024.

Gray comes into this game with an ERA of 6.14, a WHIP of 2.455, 12 hits allowed, six batters walked, and five earned runs against in two games played. His high WHIP mark is especially intriguing for the benefit of our YRFI, meaning opposing offenses have found themselves in very favorable scoring positions when teeing off against Gray. Even against a lowly Oakland batting lineup, Gray’s inability to keep batters off the base will more than fill the skill gap and keep the Athletics offense competitive.

As for the Rangers, their offense has shown every bit of the unit that led them to a World Series championship, and now get the opportunity to show out once again against JP Sears. Sears has struggled mightily in his two appearances so far this season, coming into this matchup with an ERA of 8.68, a WHIP of 1.607, 12 hits allowed, and nine earned runs against. The Rangers are top-5 in OBP and BA, boasting elite contact ability that should punish Sears for a first inning run.

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