Best YRFI Bets Today: Time to Fade Nestor Cortes Again

Another jam-packed weekend of baseball action has come and gone and with it comes more data for us to work with for our daily YRFI series. We fade a popular name who has helped us cash twice this year already with Nestor Cortes making his next start tomorrow against the Miami Marlins.

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Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees - Jesus Luzardo vs. Nestor Cortes (6:05 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel

As previously mentioned, we are set to fade Nestor Cortes once again as he has been a profitable fade target so far this season. In two games played already, Cortes has given up seven earned runs as he has failed to show any sort of command since the calendar has turned to 2024. 

To go with his seven earned runs against, Cortes also possesses an ERA of 6.30, 13 hits allowed, four batters walked, and a WHIP of 1.700. A sad sight to see after the eccentric pitcher has shown progression over the past two seasons, but his 2024 campaign has gotten off to a rough start with no end in sight.

His struggles stem from a lackluster spring training, finishing the preseason with an ERA of 7.71, a WHIP of 1.929, 23 hits allowed, four batters walked, and 12 earned runs against. The Marlins are not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment, but an elite contact batter who almost led the league in hits last year in Luis Arraez is more than capable of getting on base early against the reeling pitcher.

As for the Yankees, they are set to face the Marlins Jesus Luzardo who takes the mound for the third time this season. Luzardo has gotten off to a better start than his counterpart Nestor Cortes but is still prone to getting shelled early against an elite top of the Yankees batting order.

The Yankees made headlines in the offseason with the signing of Juan Soto and he has proven to be an instant hit and a big factor in their early season success. With Soto’s elite batting prowess hitting second, opposing pitchers are forced to tighten up and get aggressive in order to avoid having someone on the bases before Aaron Judge’s power. Expect Soto to take Luzardo deep into the count, getting in scoring position with a great chance to score early in the contest.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds - Aaron Ashby vs. Graham Ashcraft (6:40 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (+100) at FanDuel

Like Nestor Cortes, the Cincinnati Reds are also back as a popular target for this series but for a different reason. The Reds' offense have been electric off the bats of their elite top-of-the-batting order, now taking on Aaron Ashby in his first season start with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Ashby hasn’t given us much to work with, but if his spring training is any indicator to what we may see, then I really like the chances of the Reds cashing one in early. Ashby finished the preseason with an ERA of 9.72, a WHIP of 2.280, 14 hits allowed, five batters walked, and nine earned runs against in just three games played. His inability to keep batters off the bases will prove to be detrimental against a deep Reds batting lineup.

As for the Brewers, they get the opportunity to take advantage of a weak Reds defense in an inter-division NL Central battle. Graham Ashcraft takes the mound for the second time this season, having to face a lethal Brewers batting lineup that features William Contreras and Willy Adames at the top of the order. Ashcraft has shown to be productive early in 2024, but he has been caught deep twice already for minimal runs against. Expect negative regression back towards the mean against a productive top of the Brewers order.

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