Best YRFI Bets Today: Fade Patrick Corbin’s Second Start

Our winning streak on daily YRFI bets comes to an end after a 1-1 day on Thursday’s slate. We now turn our sights towards my favorite fade target in the league with Patrick Corbin making his second start of the season. Corbin has been one of the more underwhelming starting pitchers in the past few years, showing no signs of progression in his 2024 campaign. For more information about YRFI’s and what factors into them being worth a wager, you can read it here.

As for what sportsbook to use to wager on YRFI’s, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the front runner for the market as it routinely puts out lines before anyone else and at very favorable odds. Better yet, FanDuel is also giving new users who have not created an account yet $200 in bonus bets for simply signing up and winning their first bet of at least five dollars wagered. Be sure to lay five dollars on a heavy favorite, maximizing your chance of collecting the bonus bets.

For more betting opportunities check our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals - Aaron Nola vs. Patrick Corbin (6:45 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-113) at FanDuel

As previously mentioned, my favorite fade target makes his second start of the season with Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Washington Nationals. He has been on a steady decline with his production over the past few years and has shown no signs of improvement so far in his 2024 campaign.

His struggles from 2023 continued on into spring training, finishing the preseason with an ERA of 5.51, a WHIP of 1.531, 21 hits allowed, four walked batters, and 10 earned runs against. His regular season start did not fare better, starting the year with an ERA of 8.31, a WHIP of 1.846, seven hits allowed, one walk, and four earned runs against.

That spells potential disaster against the top of the Phillies lineup, having to face the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper. Especially with Harper seemingly getting back into his groove, breaking out of his early season slump with a monster three home run performance. With an elite blend of power and contact ability, Corbin may be facing an early exit.

As for Aaron Nola, his regular season debut started out flat as he currently has an ERA of 12.46 after a very underwhelming performance. This was due to his inability to retire opposing batters, hanging pitches above the plate for an astonishing 11 hits allowed. That resulted in a WHIP of 2.769 in 4.2 innings pitched, as well as six earned runs against as runners were routinely in scoring position.

As good as Nola has shown he can be, he is due for positive regression back towards the mean. Especially with a drastic difference in quality of opponent with him going from pitching against the Atlanta Braves to the Nationals. Still, the Nationals have productive batters at the top of their order with CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas capable of making contact at a high rate, punishing Nola if he continues to lose command across the middle of the plate.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves - Tommy Henry vs. Spencer Strider (7:20 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-121) at BetRivers

Normally when making a wager in the YRFI market, you want to avoid elite pitchers who are potential Cy Young award candidates. Especially with them being pegged as the favorite to win the award as Spencer Strider currently has a commanding lead per his listed odds. Still, Strider’s aggressiveness will always leave room for a potential hit against and a runner in scoring position as he attacks the strike zone at a heavy rate.

As for Tommy Henry, he is practically on no one's radar to win the Cy Young award and for good reason. He has severely underwhelmed since the start of the preseason, finishing spring training with an ERA of 5.09, a WHIP of 1.522, 29 hits allowed, six batters walked, and 13 earned runs against.

Henry has since failed to create any momentum after spring training, starting the regular season with an ERA of 11.25, a WHIP of 2.000, six hits allowed, and five earned runs against. Not exactly ideal numbers to have when facing one of the best betting lineups in the league. Reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, elite contact hitter Ozzie Albies, and slugger Austin Riley are a nightmare for any pitcher to go against, let alone Henry who has shown an inability to punch opposing batters out.

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