Best YRFI Bets Today: Target These YRFI's for Thursday's Small Slate

After our second 2-0 day in this daily YRFI best bets article, we come back with two more YRFI's for Thursday’s small six-game slate. Fading pitchers who have shown regression since spring training have done wonders for us, and Thursday’s slate has a few more players who have yet to shake off the rust so far this season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals - Martin Perez vs. Josiah Gray (4:05 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-110) at FanDuel

It’s not exactly the prettiest matchup on paper, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have so far exceeded expectations with a 5-1 start. They were undefeated until last night's loss to the Washington Nationals, regressing back toward preseason expectations after their hot start. A shocking start to the season for a team that was largely pegged to be at the bottom of the standings.

Martin Perez has played a big role for the Pirates' improved play early in the year, showing long-term ace potential after finishing his debut with an ERA of 2.08. While that normally screams “avoid” for a YRFI, his high level of play is sort of misleading as he has actually struggled with his command. He may have only had one earned run against him, but he also had six hitters make contact while walking three more with a WHIP of 2.077.

The number of batters who have managed to get on base against Perez without scoring means that negative scoring regression is looming large. The Nationals may be barren of talent, but their top-of-the-order at least boasts above-average batting production with CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas both serving as lethal batters.

His counterpart that is dueling against has not had the same success as Josiah Gray has struggled since the calendar changed to 2024. Starting with his spring training performance, Josiah Gray finished the preseason with an ERA of 6.61, a WHIP of 1.959, had 19 hits allowed, walked 13 batters, and 12 earned runs against him.

His regular season debut did not fare much better, starting the regular season with an ERA of 15.75, a WHIP 2.500, had eight hits allowed, walked two batters, and seven earned runs against him. The Pirates top of the order isn't exactly frightening, but Gray’s underwhelming showings may even the playing field as he is prone to getting shelled early and often.

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Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Ryan Weathers vs. Lance Lynn (4:15 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-110) at FanDuel

Both the Cardinals and the Marlins have been popular fade targets in this YRFI series, now giving us the benefit of them facing each other with two more underwhelming pitchers taking the mound. The batting talent isn't exactly ideal on either end, but the Marlins Luis Arraez is a potential MLB hits leader candidate, while the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt and Brendan Donovan can take a struggling Ryan Weathers yard at a moment's notice.

Speaking of Lynn, he makes his season debut after an underwhelming spring training. He finished the preseason with an ERA of 7.90, a WHIP of 1.683, 14 hits allowed, nine walks, and 12 earned runs against. That is a slight dip from a lackluster 2023 campaign, showing that his struggles may be carrying over into the 2024 season while needing to find answers in a hurry against one of the best contact hitters in the league.

As for Ryan Weathers, his year has been a roller coaster of production. He managed to finish spring training with respectable numbers, finishing March with an ERA of 3.00 and 21 strikeouts in just four games played. The same can not be said with his regular season debut, starting the year with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.250. Weathers may positively regress back towards the mean, but his high contact rate in his season debut is alarming with a productive top of the Cardinals order up next.

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