Best NRFI Bets Today, September 11

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles – Dakota Hudson (R) vs Dean Kremer (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

The Atlanta Braves have punched their tickets to the 2023 MLB Postseason as the Baltimore Orioles (90-52) look to the same soon. The Orioles can get even closer as they host the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game series starting on Monday. The Cardinals have the second-worst overall record in the NL and could be the next team eliminated from the postseason.

While the Cardinals are one of the most disappointing teams in the MLB this season, their batting team has been a reason they remain alive in the hunt for the postseason. The Cardinals are a team that knows how to account for runs, but especially early in the game. St. Louis is ranked 10th in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.55). 

As a team, the Cardinals are ranked seventh in the AL in runs accounted for (655), sixth in hits accounted for (1235), third in home runs accounted for (196), fifth in walks (494), seventh in strikeouts (1193), sixth in batting average (.253), fourth in on-base percentage (.328) and fourth in slugging (.426).

The Orioles aren't as quick to score in the first inning as they rank 15th in the league in runs accounted for (0.53). They are a highly efficient batting team this season by ranking fourth in runs accounted for (728), sixth in hits accounted for (1251), fourth in fewest strikeouts encountered (1177), fifth in batting average (.258), sixth in on-base percentage (.324) and sixth in slugging percentage (.430). 

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers – Jesus Luzardo (L) vs Brandon Woodruff (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

The Miami Marlins (74-69) and the Milwaukee Brewers (79-63) go into game one of a four-game series in Milwaukee with the anticipation of a tough pitching matchup. Both are not exactly highly efficient scoring this season, especially when it comes to the first inning. 

The Brewers are ranked 11th in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.55), but they are not good at the plate. Milwaukee ranks ninth in the NL in runs accounted (631), 14th in hits accounted for (1117), 12th in home runs accounted for (145), 10th in fewest strikeouts encountered (1255), 14th in batting average (.236), 10th in on-base percentage (.316) and 15th in slugging percentage (.378). 

The Marlins are ranked 15th (last) in the NL in runs accounted for (588), 11th in home runs accounted for (146), 13th in stolen bases (71), 15th (last) in walks (366), third in batting average (.258), 12th in on-base percentage (.314) and 10th in slugging percentage (.404). They are a team that knows how to get on base at times, but not remain there.

What will make the difference in this game when it comes to runs allowed in the first inning will be the starting pitchers from both teams. The Marlins are going with their current healthy ace pitcher Jesus Luzardo (3.59 ERA in 155.1 innings pitched), while the Brewers will be going with Brandon Woodruff (2.30 ERA in 47 innings pitched).

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners – Reid Detmers (L) vs Logan Gilbert (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)

The Los Angeles Angels (66-77) go on the road in a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners (79-64), who are in a heated battle with the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers for control of the AL West. The Angels are 15 games behind the Astros and don’t have much to be playing for.

There is expected to be scoring early in this game as both the Angels and the Mariners are on a positive trend of accounting for runs early. The Mariners are eighth in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.56), while the Angels are 16th (0.52).

The Angels have scored three runs in the first inning of the last two games. The Mariners have the potential to account for runs early as that was evident in game three of the four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Seattle scored three runs in the first inning of game three. 

Seattle's offense ranks sixth in the AL in runs accounted for (682), ninth in hits accounted for (1182), seventh in home runs accounted for (191), ninth in batting average (.244), sixth in on-base percentage (.324) and ninth in slugging percentage (.419).

The Angels are seventh in the AL in runs accounted for (671), eighth in hits accounted for (1210), first in home runs accounted for (206), eighth in batting average (.248) and fifth in slugging percentage (.431).

Reid Detmers (4.82 ERA in 130.2 innings pitched) will be the Angels' starting pitcher while the Mariners are going with Logan Gilbert (3.61 ERA in 167 innings pitched) on Monday.

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