Best NRFI Bets Today, October 10

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins - Cristian Javier vs Sonny Gray

Under 0.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings)

The first two games of this series have seen runs scored in the first inning. However, that trend doesn’t seem sustainable, especially since the Twins were the third-best team in baseball this year at playing a scoreless first inning. With the series shifting to Minnesota for Game 3, hitters have a less friendly environment, especially in the middle of the afternoon. With Sonny Gray pitching for the Twins and Cristian Javier starting for the Astros, we expect this to be a scoreless first inning.

Gray’s resume speaks for itself, especially his recent track record. He threw five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays during the Wild Card round, meaning he’s allowed just three total runs in his last five starts, covering 26 innings. In other words, Gray has conceded three runs in his last 26 innings, making it unlikely that he’ll give up a run in any given inning, much less the first inning. Gray also owns a 0.84 ERA in the first inning of games in 2023, not including his scoreless first inning against Toronto last week. He’s a safe bet to keep the Astros off the scoreboard early in Game 3. 

On the other hand, Javier is less of a sure thing. He had some issues in the first inning this year, pitching to a 5.23 ERA. However, he's been better lately, keeping opposing teams off the scoreboard during the first inning in five of his last six starts. The young righty also has a 2.20 ERA in the postseason, pitching mostly out of the bullpen. That means Javier can handle the nerves of the moment and usually pitches well early in his playoff appearances. The Twins aren’t exactly a juggernaut offensively, especially in the first inning of games. That should allow Javier to match Gray with a scoreless first inning.

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers - Dean Kremer vs Nathan Eovaldi

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

These two teams combined for 19 runs in Game 2 and have scored 24 total runs over the first 18 innings of this series. That points to some early runs being scored in Game 3. To be fair, both the Orioles and Rangers were middle of the pack in scoring first-inning runs during the regular season. But with the series shifting to Texas, both lineups should be poised to score some runs early and often.

Nathan Eovaldi will do his best to keep the Orioles from scoring in the first inning of Game 3. He was brilliant in the Wild Card round, giving up one run over 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays. Eovaldi also has a respectable 3.24 first-inning ERA. But he had some serious problems coming down the stretch, so it's not a lock that he’ll be able to replicate his success against Toronto. Also, the Orioles will come into this game desperate for a win and focused on scoring in the first inning and taking an early lead.

On the other side, Dean Kremer will start for the Orioles and attempt to cool down a Texas lineup that scored 11 runs in Game 2. The first inning was not kind to Kremer, as he posted a 5.34 ERA in the first inning of his 32 starts with opposing batters hitting .292 against him. He’s also had an extended layoff, which could hinder him in the first inning of Game 3. If Kremer isn’t sharp out of the gate, the Rangers are likely to punish him. Leadoff hitter Marcus Semien finally broke out of his slump in Game 2 while Corey Seager and Mitch Garver are both having excellent postseasons. That sounds like a formula for first-inning runs for Texas.

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