Best NRFI Bets Today, May 20-21

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

Under 0.5 Runs (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This is our lock of the weekend, as all signs point to a quiet first inning. One reason we believe that is Michael Wacha’s (5-1, 3.58 ERA) play this month. The veteran owns a 0.36 ERA over four starts in May, which was a significant bounce back after a bad end of April. He has not allowed a run over his last 18 innings pitched and has been excellent at keeping runners off the bases. 

Wacha will have his hands full with the Yankees, but he has one significant advantage in his favor. Aaron Judge, that Yankee's most dangerous hitter, is 0-15 with ten strikeouts against Wacha. On top of that, New York has failed to score a first-inning run in their previous six games. Those are stats that will work heavily in Wacha’s favor today.

Another reason we love this bet is Luis Severino (0-0. 1.93 ERA). He will be making just his second start of the season after returning from a lat injury that kept him out for the first two months. The veteran was sharp, allowing four hits and one runs over 4 ⅔ innings. He was pulled at just 75 pitches, preventing him from notching a quality start. The only Padres at the top of the lineup that has seen Severino is Xander Bogaerts. The Padres' clean-up hitter has faced Severino 29 times but has managed just three hits. That, combined with Severino’s sharp season debut, has us loving this bet today.

For more MLB action this weekend see also our choice of the best MLB prop bets.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 Runs (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The Marlins and Angels will meet for game two of their series tonight, and we expect some action right off the bat. A big reason for that is the play of these offenses. The Angel’s success is less surprising given their star power, and they are top ten in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Most of that success has come from their top-heavy lineup, which features Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Neither has been particularly hot of late, but they’ll have a great chance to do so tonight against a struggling Marlins starter.

Edward Cabrera (3-4, 5.05 ERA) will get the start for the Marlins tonight. The 25-year-old was fantastic over his first two seasons but regressed in 2023. After a forgettable April, things have not improved, as Cabrera owns a 5.59 ERA over four May starts. That is in part to the Marlins limiting his pitch counts, but he hasn’t looked quite comfortable all year. Now he’ll need to try and turn things around against an Angel’s team that is hitting the ball as well as anyone, which has us loving the over for this bet.

Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 3.05 ERA) will be taking the mound for the Angels today. While his season numbers are impressive, he owns a 4.68 ERA in four starts this month. He has struggled to keep the ball in the park, which is inflating his ERA. While many Marlins have yet to see Ohtani, Yuli Gurriel has faced him 20 times and owns a .300 batting average against the former MVP. He and Luis Arraez (.371 BA) should see Ohtani in the first inning, which leads to a run.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Our last pick comes from a game featuring two of the team's top offensive units. Both rank in the top ten in the league in home runs and RBIs, with the Rays ranking in the top three in most offensive categories. The Yankees have an incredible top-of-the-lineup, while the Rays might have the most complete lineup in baseball. New York has scored in the first inning in two of their last three games, while the Rays have done so in their previous three games. While the starters taking the mound today are good, we love these offenses to do some damage early today.

Clayton Kershaw (6-4, 2.98 ERA) will get the start for the Dodgers today. While he has great numbers in 2023, he has struggled in May. He owns a 5.12 ERA and has just one quality start in four tries. His last two starts were among his worst, combining to allow 12 hits and six runs over 7 ⅔ innings. That shows how much the former Cy Young winner is struggling, and that isn’t going to change today against the top offense in baseball.

Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his season debut tonight for the Rays. He missed almost all of 2022 with an injury, which has become a theme throughout his career. Glasnow has nasty stuff and can be elite, but this will be his first start since October 8, 2022. That is a lot of time off, and now he’ll need to shake off the rust against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. We see him taking at least an inning to settle in, making this one of our top bets of the weekend.