Best NRFI Bets Today, May 22

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies – Tommy Henry (L) vs Zack Wheeler (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)

Both the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-20) and the Philadelphia Phillies (22-24) have become serious contenders in NL Playoffs. The Diamondbacks are reaping the rewards of their farming system with young stars. Philadelphia is getting a solid rhythm from star-designated hitter Bryce Harper after missing the first month of the 2023 MLB Season.

The Phillies have averaged 0.63 runs in the first inning of their last three games. One of their most productive games this season came in the 12-3 win over the Chicago Cubs when Philadelphia accounted for six runs in the first inning. That game was highlighted by a grand slam home run by left fielder Kyle Schwarber.

Philadelphia is a team that has been getting more efficient at the plate since the return of Harper. The Phillies are fifth in the NL in fifth in hits accounted for (402), third in batting average (.261), and seventh in on-base percentage (.323).

Arizona possesses a great combination of veterans and reliable young stars. The Diamondbacks have five players who have accounted for 20 or more runs this season as two of them are 23 years old or younger. The Diamondbacks are fourth in the NL in runs accounted for (234), second in hits (416), first in batting average (.266) and fourth in on-base percentage (.329).

In a series both teams have gained momentum on the offensive side of the field, there is a solid chance that one of the teams will get on the scoreboard in the first inning.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals – Michael Lorenzen (R) vs Brady Singer (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Monday starts a pivotal series in the AL Central as the Detroit Tigers (20-24) go on the road to take on the Kansas City Royals (14-34), who are at the bottom of the entire league. The Tigers are looking to rise more as a dark horse contender for AL Central. The Royals, on the other hand, are trying to make something out of this horrible season.

Both the Tigers and the Royals are among the worst offenses in the AL going into the last full week of May. Kansas City’s offense ranks 12th in the AL in runs accounted for (183), 12th in hits accounted for (361) and 14th in on-base percentage (.293). Detroit’s offense ranks last in the AL in runs accounted for (153), hits accounted for (334) and batting average (.228).

This game of two bad offenses is all about matchups with the starting pitchers and the momentum of the previous series. While Detroit is averaging 0.58 runs in the first inning, they have been on a hot streak with runs in the first innings in the last few games. The Tigers have averaged 1.67 runs in the first innings in the last three games, which is second in the league.

They have a chance to continue their impressive run in the first innings in the last few games as the Royals are set to start Brady Singer (7.09 ERA in 45.2 innings pitched). Singer has allowed 38 runs through nine games played this season. While it is not usually smart to bet on the Tigers’ ability to score, they are on a good streak and have a chance to continue against the Royals. 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves – Gavin Stone (R) vs Charlie Morton (R)

Over 1.5 Runs (+205 at DraftKings)

Two of the top offenses in the MLB in a potential preview of the NLCS will begin on Monday. The Los Angeles Dodgers (29-19) will go on the road to face the Atlanta Braves (29-17). These are offenses that start fast by accounting for runs in the first inning.

Heading into Sunday, the Dodgers and the Braves are two of the top three teams in the leagues accounted for in the first inning. The Dodgers rank first in the league (with the Tampa Bay Rays) in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.81) while the Braves rank third in the league (0.80).

The Braves have accounted for four total runs in the first inning of the three-game home series against the Seattle Mariners. They have accounted for a run in the first inning in all three games. Atlanta ranks second in the NL in runs accounted for (237), first in home runs (76), and second in on-base percentage (.335) through their first 45 games.

The Dodgers are on a slight slump heading into Sunday’s matchups as they have averaged 0.67 runs in the first inning through the last three games. They are still ranked first in the NL in runs accounted for (255), first in home runs (76), and second in slugging percentage (.449).

With both offenses still playing at an elite level and Gavin Stone (9 ERA in 4.0 innings), the Braves, alone are likely to account for multiple runs in the first inning. 

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