Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, June 3-4

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox

Under 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This game features two teams that have struggled to get their offenses going this season. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in batting average and the Tigers rank in the bottom five in most offensive categories. While Chicago has had a bit more success, they are in the bottom half of the league in those same categories. Those struggles were fully displayed last night as Chicago won 3-0, with the first run not being scored until the sixth inning. That suggests we will have a quiet first inning today, especially with two talented pitchers on the mound.

The White Sox will have Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.88 ERA) on the mound for the first inning tonight. The pitcher had a breakout 2022 campaign but has regressed this season. Cease has struggled with his control, leading to high pitch counts and more runs being scored. However, he’s had a scoreless first inning in six of his last seven starts, as most of his problems have come during his second time through the lineup. He gave up four hits, runs, and walks in his last start against the Tigers, but things didn’t get ugly until the third inning. The Tiger’s offense is among the league's worst, which is why we love Cease to keep them off the scoreboard in the first inning.

Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 3.50 ERA) will get the start for the Tigers tonight. While he has had an OK career, the veteran was absolutely electric in May. He posted a 1.95 ERA across five starts last month, with five of his seven earned runs coming in one game. That hot streak was extended in his last start, which was against the White Sox. Lorenzen allowed zero earned runs and just two hits over 6 ⅔ innings. Considering the White Sox offense is far from impressive, we expect an easy 1-2-3 first inning for Lorenzen.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers

Under 0.5 Runs (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This matchup is a battle between two teams with offenses on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Rangers have surprised the league by putting up one of the best records through the season's first two months. A big reason for that is their offense, which leads the league in batting average and runs, and ranks second in on-base percentage. However, they have stumbled over their last two games, scoring two runs in each. On top of that, they have not scored a first-run inning over their previous six games. Considering those stats and the fact that they’ll be facing one of the top pitching prospects in the league has us locking this bet in.

Seattle found their bats against the A’s and Pirates but have reverted to their old way against the Yankees and Rangers. The Mariners have scored just three runs over their previous three games, signaling that their offense struggles are not over quite yet. They have scored in the first inning just once in their last five games, and that came against a struggling Pirates pitcher. They have failed to score in the first inning in their four games since, with just seven total runs over that stretch. Texas starter Andrew Heaney (4-3, 3.76 ERA) isn’t overwhelming, but he can handle this bad Seattle offense.

Heaney is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career at 31-years-old. The Rangers have a pitching staff filled with reclamation projects and the veteran is no exception. He has been fantastic over his last three starts, allowing just two runs over 19 innings. That includes an impressive start on the road against Baltimore, where he allowed four hits and one run over seven innings. If that isn’t enough to convince you, there is also the fact that Heaney has allowed a first-inning run in just two starts this season. Considering Seattle’s offensive struggles, this is an easy bet. 

LA Angels vs Houston Astros

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

While we are only at the beginning of June, this is an important AL West matchup. With the AL East filled with contenders and the Rangers looking like Division champions, the Astros and Angels will compete for the same playoff spots. The Astros have the upper hand by winning the first two games, thanks to the Angels' struggling offense. The Halos have two of the best offensive players in the league but have been held to three or fewer runs in three of their last four games. While they have the talent, it’s hard to see them breaking out against Astros starter Cristian Javier (6-1, 2.97).

Javier has been fantastic for the Astros this season and has been at his best over the last few weeks. The young starter has won his previous four starts, throwing a combined 23 innings and allowing just five runs. That includes against the Angels, where he allowed two runs, three hits, and struck out 11 over six innings. A home run undid him, but he was near unhittable for the rest of the game. While the Angels have Trout and Ohtani, Javier should have no problem shutting them down for a scoreless first inning.

Patrick Sandoval (3-4, 3.42 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels tonight. While he has lost his last three starts, they came from a lack of offense from LA. He is the lynchpin of this bet, but we have faith as Sandoval has done his best work on the road over the last two seasons, posting ERAs far below what he did at home. We’re not sure if he’ll be able to contain Houston all night, but we see a clean first inning for the young star.

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