Best NRFI Bets Today, June 26

Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles – Brandon Willamson (L) vs Cole Irvin (L)

Over 0.5 Runs (-150 at DraftKings)

One of the most highly anticipated series, if not the best series, of the new week is set. The Baltimore Orioles (47-29) will to host the Cincinnati Reds (41-37) in a matchup where both teams might be the biggest surprises in their respective conferences. 

The Orioles have been a great team at the plate this season due to their young talent that has stepped up. Now they can contend with some of the top players in the AL East and the AL altogether. Baltimore ranks fifth in the NL in runs accounted for (370), sixth in hits accounted for (650), sixth in home runs (94), fourth in stolen bases (60), fourth in fewest strikeouts encountered (626), sixth in batting average (.253), sixth in on-base percentage (.320) and fourth in slugging percentage (.426).

The Reds didn’t start the 2023 MLB Season well through the first two months. Cincinnati entered the month of June with an overall record of 26-29. The Reds revitalized their season on June 6th when they added rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz to the lineup. The Reds are currently 15-8 in June, with their 12-game winning streak shattered in the recent two losses to the Atlanta Braves. 

Cincinnati ranks 13th in the league in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.55) thanks to their big run in June. The Orioles rank 28th in the league in that category (0.39). What will be the main decider of the bet for any runs accounted for in the first inning is that the Reds have allowed 62 runs in the first inning, the most in any other series.

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – Colin Rea (R) vs Justin Verlander (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)

The New York Mets (35-42) are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers (40-37) in a four-game series they desperately need to take advantage of. The Mets find themselves near the bottom of a brutal NL East Division, while the Brewers have lost their first-place hold of the NL Central for the first time in a long time this season to the Reds.

It is not difficult to see why the Mets are near the bottom of the division and one of the most disappointing teams this season. They rank near the bottom in all major batting and pitching categories. The Mets rank ninth in the NL in runs accounted for (348), 12th in hits accounted for (616), ninth in walks (260), 11th in batting average (.241), 11th in on-base percentage (.320) and 10th in slugging percentage (.398).

Free agency and injuries have hurt Milwaukee significantly at the plate this season. The Brewers rank last in runs accounted for (312), hits accounted for (569), batting average (.226), on-base percentage (.303) and slugging percentage (.372).

The pitching matchup will be a factor not only in the game on Monday but if any team scores in the first inning. The Mets will have Justin Verlander (4.50 ERA in 52 innings pitched), while the Brewers will have Colin Rea (4.88 ERA in 62.2 innings pitched).

The Mets rank 29th in the league in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.29), while the Brewers are tied with the Washington Nationals for eighth in the league (0.60). While the Brewers are successful this season in runs in the first inning, they are facing a talented pitcher in Verlander.

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers – Matthew Boyd (L) vs Andrew Heaney (L)

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

The Texas Rangers (47-30) continue to maintain a solid lead in the AL West while the Detroit Tigers (33-43) try to claw their way back into contention in the AL Central race. On Monday, the Rangers will host the Tigers in a new four-game series with only a few weeks before the 2023 MLB All-Star Break.

The Rangers have been the most impressive team at the plate in the AL, perhaps in the entire MLB, as they rank first in the AL in runs accounted for (458), first in hits accounted for (735), fifth in home accounted for (102), third in walks accounted for (267), first in batting average (.272), first in on-base percentage (.341) and second in slugging percentage (.454).

The Tigers have been less fortunate in their success at the plate this season. Detroit ranks 14th in the AL in runs accounted for (284), 12th in hits accounted for (587), 14th in home runs accounted for (67), 12th in batting average (.229), 11th in on-base percentage (.301) and 14th in slugging percentage (.360).

The Rangers should have no problems holding back the Tigers scoring early and often with their starting pitcher Andrew Heaney (4.38 ERA in 84.1 innings pitched). Detroit, however, might have some problems holding back Texas in the first inning with their starting pitcher Matthew Boyd (5.37 ERA in 70.1 innings pitched).

The Rangers rank 14th in the league in runs in the first inning (0.55), while the Tigers rank 26th in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.42).

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