Best NRFI Bets Today, June 19

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers – Jordan Lyles (R) vs Reese Olsen (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-130 at DraftKings)

The AL Central has been a disaster this season as the top team in the division is at .500%. The Detroit Tigers (30-40) and the Kansas City Royals (19-52) have not accounted for an easy season themselves as they rank among the three worst teams in the AL.

This Monday starts a new three-game series between the divisional for the second time this season in Detroit. Despite the terrible records and productivity in the batting game, there is serious reason to believe that the probability of runs accounted for in the first inning is high.

Kansas City ranks 17th in the league in runs accounted for in the first inning at 0.51. They have not been lucky in any of the four previous games in accounting for runs in the first inning. The Royals have also allowed 0.59 runs in the first inning by opponents this season.

Detroit ranks 24th in the league in runs accounted for the first inning at 0.46. They are the second-most active in runs in the first inning. The Tigers had three big wins in the four-game road series over the AL Central leader Minnesota Twins but only scored in the first inning once.

The biggest indicator for this game having a score early is the dreadful pitching matchups. Kansas City will start Jordan Lyles (6.89 ERA in 79.2 innings pitched) at the mound, while Detroit will start Reese Olsen (6.08 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched). Lyles has given up 66 runs and 18 home runs, while Olsen has given up ten runs in a short amount of time.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins – James Paxton (L) vs Pablo Lopez (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

The Boston Red Sox (37-35) are currently at the bottom of the AL East division while the Minnesota Twins (36-36) are at the top of the AL Central division, yet the Red Sox have the better overall record. This is a game where the scoring might be difficult for both teams, at least early.

The Red Sox are ranked 21st in the league in runs accounted for in the first inning at 0.49. Boston started the series at home scoring two runs in the first inning that led to the dominating 15-5 over the New York Yankees. In the next two wins over the Yankees, the Red Sox were not able to score in the first inning.

The Twins started the 2023 MLB Season great, but have since suffered a tough outing in May and June. Minnesota ranks 18th in the league in runs accounted for in the first inning at 0.50.

They didn’t have any luck starting their momentum early in the divisional rival series at home versus the Detroit Tigers. The Twins were not able to score a run in the first inning of any of the four games versus the Tigers.

The pitching matchups will be tough for either team accounting for a run early. Boston will be going with James Paxton (3.09 ERA in 32 innings pitched) at the mound on Monday, while Minnesota will have Pablo Lopez (4.27 ERA in 84.1 innings pitched) starting. While Lopez is not as efficient as the other top three starting pitchers for the Twins, he is much better than many team’s ace pitchers.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros – Max Scherzer (R) vs Hunter Brown (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (+115 at DraftKings)

One of the best bets to place on the first day of a new week is the over of runs accounted for in the first inning in the night game between the New York Mets (33-38) and the Houston Astros (39-33). This bet should leave individuals feeling optimistic about the outcomes of a run early in the game based on the track record of the Astros and the momentum of the Mets.

As of Monday morning, the Astros rank third in the MLB in runs averaged in the first inning at 0.75. In the 4-1 loss to the Washington Nationals, the Astros accounted for two runs in the first inning. They were held to no runs accounted for in the first inning in either of the first two games against the Cincinnati Reds. Finally, in the series finale 9-7 loss to the Reds, the Astros accounted for two runs in the first.

One of the biggest reasons for the doubt of runs accounted for in this game are the Mets. The Mets rank 29th in the league runs averaged in the first inning (0.30). They did, however, score three runs in the first inning of the 6-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Afterward, the Mets scored one run each in the following two losses at the Cardinals.

Both teams are having two of their more efficient pitchers at the mound for Monday’s game. The Astros are having their star rookie Hunter Brown (3.35 ERA in 75.1 innings pitched) start while the Mets are going with Max Scherzer (4.45 ERA in 56.2 innings pitched).