Best NRFI Bets Today, July 19

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners - Kenta Maeda (RHP) vs Luis Castillo (RHP)

Under 0.5 Runs (-156 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners will face off on Wednesday night. Kenta Maeda will pitch for Minnesota against Luis Castillo of Seattle. These are two pitchers with elite ability, but Castillo has definitely been the more consistent arm. We’re going to lean toward the NRFI in this game for a few reasons. 

Maeda hasn’t been great in his 36 innings on the mound this season. He is 2-5 with a 5.5 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. However, he does have 41 strikeouts in 36 innings, which is beneficial for NRFI. If Maeda gets in trouble, he has the pitches to get out of the jams. Additionally, Seattle barely scored on Tuesday, and they’ve been a very lackluster offense this season. The talent is present on their roster, but they haven’t put consistent performances together. 

Castillo is our favorite reason to bet the NRFI in this spot. He should easily get through the first inning because of his elite strikeout ability. The Twins have a ton of swing-and-miss in their lineup, and this is perfect against Castillo who has 122 strikeouts in 112.1 innings of work. He has been home run happy at times, which is deadly for an NRFI, but we trust him to keep the ball down in the zone on Wednesday night. Take the NRFI in the Twins vs Mariners contest. 

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals - Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) vs Ryan Yarbrough (LHP)

Under 0.5 Runs (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

In the first game of the Tigers vs Royals series, there were just five runs scored. Last night, the script flipped and there were 21 total runs posted between the two teams. We believe the offenses will come back down to earth in game three, and we’re going to count on this in the first inning. The NRFI in the matchup is listed at -115, and one of the two pitchers has been legitimate this season. 

Eduardo Rodriguez will pitch for the Tigers, and he has a 2.7 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP over 76.2 innings this season. He has allowed just 59 hits with eight homers while totaling 81 strikeouts. Rodriguez should easily work his way through the bottom half of the first inning. The risk in this game is betting on Ryan Yarbrough, who hasn’t been the best in his 32.1 innings of work. 

He is 2-4 with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He gets hit, but he doesn’t allow homers which is beneficial for NRFI wagering. The bottom line in this game is that both offenses are lackluster. They could hit in the first inning, but their numbers haven’t been strong in 2023, which is why the NRFI is a viable betting option. Neither team has an OBP over .300 and is a sign that they haven’t delivered on offense. 

Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets - Touki Toussaint (RHP) vs Justin Verlander (RHP)

Under 0.5 Runs Scored in First Inning (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Mets and the White Sox are two of the biggest disappointments in baseball. New York has a slight chance of rebounding in the second half, while Chicago is onto 2024. The team just isn’t good, and they don’t have too many scary hitters outside of Luis Robert at the top of the order. Justin Verlander, the defending Cy Young winner, has been solid this season. He will not be winning any awards, but we trust Verlander to get three outs against Chicago to begin the game.

The pitcher is 3-5 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Over 75 innings, he has allowed 67 hits. Chicago’s team OBP is .297 and they have a high chase rate, so we’ll lean towards the reigning Cy Young winner in this spot. New York’s offense has been better, but they haven’t been consistent. Prior to yesterday’s 11-run outing, they had only scored four runs in four games.

Touki Toussaint will be tasked with getting the first three outs of the game. He is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 24 innings. The workload isn’t high, so it’s tough to judge his numbers. Toussaint’s biggest issue is his walk rate, but he has good strikeout pitches and doesn’t allow homers. It’s worth taking a chance on Toussaint with a shaky Mets offense.