Best NRFI Bets Today, August 28

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers - Luis Severino (R) vs Reese Olsen (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)

One of two games to kick off Monday's slate of MLB games is the start of a four-game series between the New York Yankees (62-68) at the Detroit Tigers (52-71). It has been a tough second half of the 2023 MLB Season for the Yankees, who are closer to the productivity of the Tigers than their rivals in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Tigers are in the middle of a chase in a bad AL Central Division. 

In terms of hoping for early scoring in this game, there isn't any. The odds for runs in the first inning of this game are better than no runs scored at all, according to DraftKings, but both batting teams are struggling.

The Yankees rank 10th in the AL in runs accounted for (548), 14th in hits accounted for (972), 15th (last) in double-hits accounted for (165), 10th in stolen bases (79), 14th in batting average (.229), 11th in on-base percentage (.303) and 10th in slugging percentage (.401).

The Tigers rank 14th in the AL in runs accounted for (518), 13th in hits accounted for (1027), 13th in double-base hits accounted for (196), 13th in home runs accounted for (133), 15th (last) in stolen bases (60), 12th in walks (393), 11th in strikeouts encountered (1171), 13th in batting average (.234), 12th in on-base percentage (.301) and 14th in slugging percentage (.379).

Reese Olsen (5.29 ERA in 68 innings pitched) and Luis Severino (7.26 ERA in 74.1 innings pitched) are not efficient pitchers for the Tigers and Yankees, respectively, but they are not unstable enough to hold some bad batting teams down.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals - Kevin Gausman (R) vs Josiah Gray (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings) 

Unlike the previous game, this Monday's matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays (71-60) and the Washington Nationals (61-70) should feature some decent play at the bat. The Blue Jays are just on the outside of an incredibly tough AL Wildcard chase and AL East. The Nationals started the 2023 MLB Season in terrible shape before looking decent by the 2023 MLB All-Star Break.

There is some serious progress for the Nationals at the plate despite losing some key players within the past few seasons. The Nationals rank 10th in the NL in runs accounted for (572), third in hits accounted for (1156), ninth in stolen bases for (94), first in fewest strikeouts encountered (934), third in batting average (.259) and ninth in on-base percentage (.318).

The Blue Jays have been up and down at the plate this season as they started off hot before allowing others to control them. Toronto ranks ninth in runs accounted for (586), fourth in hits accounted for (1157), ninth in home runs accounted for (154), ninth in stolen bases (83), seventh in walks (426), third in fewest strikeouts encountered (1063), fourth in batting average (.257), fifth in on-base percentage (.327) and ninth in slugging (.415).

The difference maker in this game that will limit earlier scoring is the starting pitchers from both teams. The Blue Jays are going with Kevin Gausman (3.23 ERA in 150.1 innings pitched) while the Nationals are going with Josiah Gray (3.85 ERA in 135.2 innings pitched). Gausman and Gray have been highly efficient pitchers this season and will make for a competitive and potentially low-scoring game.

Arizona Diamondback vs Los Angeles Dodgers - Zac Gallen  (R) vs Bobby Miller (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings) 

The NL West Division has been wild and uncertain for most of the 2023 MLB Season, which makes it exciting. This Monday's final game of the night will feature the start of a three-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks (69-62) at the Los Angeles Dodgers (80-49). The Dodgers have firm control of the NL West Division, but not too long ago in the season, the Diamondbacks had the lead.

There is a serious likelihood that the game could include a run or two within the first inning. Both the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are two of the most efficient battings in the NL this season. 

The Dodgers are ranked second in the MLB, only behind the Atlanta Braves, in runs accounted for in the first inning with an average of 0.75 runs. The Diamondbacks are not far from their divisional rival as they are ranked ninth in the MLB in average runs accounted for in the first inning (0.55).

The pitching matchups in this game from both teams will be a factor in the scoring. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace pitcher Zac Gallen (3.11 ERA in 168 innings pitched), while the Dodgers are going with Bobby Miller (3.86 ERA in 81.2 innings pitched). 

While the pitching matchups will make a case for limited scoring at certain points in the game, the experience in the batting game, as well as the efficiency of scoring within the first inning, will be a convincing case of runs scored in the first inning.

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