Best NRFI Bets Today, August 24

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros - Brayan Bello vs J.P. France

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

While day games tend to favor scoreless innings, the Astros and Red Sox create a good exception to that on Thursday. The Astros rank third in the big leagues in first-inning runs while the Red Sox are middle of the pack, which is better than you might expect. Plus, a pitching matchup between Brayan Bello and J.P. France isn’t an obvious pitcher’s duel, giving both lineups a chance to get off to a fast start.

To be fair, Bello has been strong in the first inning this year. Over his 21 starts, he has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in the first inning. That’s respectable but by no means makes him invincible early in games, especially against a potent Houston lineup. The Astros have also scored 21 runs over their last four games, so they are clicking offensively and bringing a lot of positive momentum into Thursday’s game. With this being Bello’s first time facing Houston’s hitters, he could be greeted rudely by the Astros.

On the other side, France has been good but far from perfect in the first inning this year. He’s made 17 starts, posting a 3.18 ERA in the opening inning. Just like Bello, this will be France’s first time facing Boston's hitters. The Red Sox have averaged 6.1 runs per game over their last seven games, so they’ve also been scoring a lot of runs lately. Even though France has pitched well lately, he faces a high level of difficulty on Thursday. Keep in mind that there have been first-inning runs in each of the first three games of this series, so one of these lineups figures to keep that going.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles - Jose Berrios vs Kyle Gibson

Under 0.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Despite the offensive prowess of both teams, the Blue Jays and Orioles have struggled to get going early in games. The Blue Jays have scored the second-fewest first-inning runs in baseball this year while the Orioles are middle of the pack. Naturally, the Jays have hit NRFI more than any other team outside of the Marlins, doing so 58% of the time. Meanwhile, the Orioles have hit NRFI eight times in their last 10 games. With Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson starting on Thursday, it won’t be easy for either team to score early in this game.

Berrios hasn’t dominated in the first inning this year, although he has a respectable 3.96 ERA in the opening inning. However, he’s coming off 5.2 scoreless innings against the Reds in his last start and has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts, so he’s found a good groove at this point in the season. During that stretch, he's only allowed first-inning runs in two games, and one of those games was against the potent Dodgers. In other words, Berrios has an excellent chance of escaping the first inning on Thursday without giving up a run.

The same is true of Gibson, who will face a Toronto lineup that has struggled early in games. Granted, Gibson owns a troublesome 5.19 ERA in the first inning of games. He also allowed first-inning runs in consecutive starts. However, Gibson also allowed just one run on four hits over six innings - including a scoreless first inning - when he faced the Blue Jays in late July. Prior to his last two starts, Gibson went five straight starts without giving up a run in the first inning. He’s capable of bouncing back and has conceded just two runs over 13 innings against Toronto this year, so he should be able to avoid trouble in the first inning of Thursday’s game.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins - Andrew Heaney vs Pablo Lopez

Under 0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

While the Rangers are a talented team, they are a notch below average when it comes to scoring runs in the first inning. They also hit NRFI a little more often than not. Meanwhile, the Twins rank fourth in the big leagues in hitting NRFI thanks to their excellent starting pitching. Pablo Lopez should keep that trend going on Thursday, and with Andrew Heaney starting for Texas, this game should remain scoreless in the first inning and possibly longer.

Heaney has had some ups and downs this year, but he’s in the midst of a good stretch, pitching to a 2.16 ERA in August. He hasn’t always been perfect early in games, owning a modest 4.13 ERA in the first inning. But he’s also had two starts this month in which he didn’t give up any runs over five innings or more. Heaney has only allowed runs to score in the first inning in two of his last 12 starts. When he gets hit in the first inning, it’s usually for multiple runs, explaining the 4.13 first-inning ERA. Most of the time, he’s sharp early in games and should continue that against the Twins.

On the other side, Lopez is typically reliable early in games with a 3.96 first-inning ERA. More importantly, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball during the month of August. Lopez hasn’t allowed a run in 19 straight innings, throwing at least six scoreless frames in each of his last three starts. Needless to say, opposing teams have been held scoreless in the first inning of those games. Lopez now has a run of five straight games without allowing a run in the first inning. With the way he’s been pitching lately, it’d be surprising to see him give up any runs on Thursday, much less give something up in the first inning.

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