Best NRFI Bets Today: Can the Cubs Finally Solve Jesus Luzardo?

We have a pair of fantastic NRFI bets to share with you today. The first comes from a matchup between two of the NL’s best teams as Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies visit the Cubs. The other comes from Ryan Pepiot and the Rays taking on Dylan Cease and the Padres. We’ll share why we love these bets below, as well as two of our favorite YRFI picks.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs - Jesus Luzardo vs. Ben Brown (4:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook

After a mixed start to the season, Cubs’ starter Ben Brown (2-1, 4.57 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) has been lights out over his last two starts. Against the talented D-backs and Dodgers, the 25-year-old has allowed one run over ten innings. He isn’t going very deep into games, but he has looked dominant on the mound. As much as we like this Phillies lineup, Brown has shown he is up to the challenge.

Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) has looked like an ace since leaving Miami. That trend will continue again today against a Cubs team that is batting .152 against the lefty across 66 at-bats. The Cubs are swinging the bats as well as anyone in the league, but Luzardo will have the upper hand once again tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres - Ryan Pepiot vs. Dylan Cease (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook

You never really know what you’re going to get with Ryan Pepiot (1-2, 4.82 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). One day he’ll look like an ace, while at other times he’ll look completely lost. That normally makes him a dicey NRFI pick, but he carries value today as he faces a Padres team struggling to put the ball into play. Over the last seven days, San Diego is batting .195 with a brutal .561 OPS. They haven’t seen Peiot much, giving the starter an edge the first time through the lineup.

Dylan Cease (1-1, 6.04 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) was able to turn his career around after joining the Padres last season, but some of his old habits have made a re-appearance in 2025. The numbers are bad, but we know the righty is primed to break out. He’ll have a great chance to do just that today as he faces a Rays team batting .174 against him across 46 at-bats.

Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics - Jonathan Cannon vs. Jeffrey Springs

We don’t recommend watching this game, but the pitching matchup gives these two lineups a great chance to do some early damage. Chicago starter Jonathan Cannon (0-3, 4.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) hasn’t shown much growth this season. He was great against the A’s a few weeks ago, but this team is swinging the bats better now, with the fourth-highest OPS (.747) in the league.

A’s starter Jeffrey Springs (3-2, 5.64 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) has been even worse as he struggles with his command. The 32-year-old has been hammered by injuries after a breakout 2022 campaign, leading him to make just 10 starts over the next two seasons. Those injuries seem to have taken their toll, which will give a bad White Sox lineup a great chance to score runs early today.

• Miami Marlins vs. Seattle Mariners - Connor Gillispie vs. Luis Castillo

This offers some great value as it features two lineups that have ranked among the worst in baseball over the last few seasons. However, both have been getting hot. The Marlins have an impressive .290 average and .803 OPS over the previous seven days. Considering that veteran starter Luis Castillo (2-2, 4.44 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) has struggled badly in his last two starts.

Seattle has a solid .767 OPS over the last week, and Julio Rodriguez is finally starting to put the ball in play. That will continue with Connor Gillispie (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) on the mound for Miami. The 27-year-old has been hammered over his last two starts, allowing 12 runs on 15 hits and three walks over 10 innings. In his previous start, he allowed three first-inning runs.

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