Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over a Former Cy Young Winner

With the Cincinnati Reds top of their order struggling to get into a groove, the Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara has the perfect opportunity to round back into form by taking advantage of their inability to make contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants as both offenses face off against a pair of back ends who grade out well in Defensive Efficiency.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins - Brady Singer vs. Sandy Alcantara (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After getting off to a hot start, Sandy Alcanatara has been knocked back down to reality by conceding a combined 10 Earned Runs Allowed in his past two contests. A stark difference from his earlier appearances as he held the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets to a total of five Hits and four Runs Allowed while generating 11 Strikeouts. Even after his latest stumble, the former NL Cy Young winner is still averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Fortunately for Alcantara, positive regression looms large over the Marlins pitcher as he faces off against a Cincinnati top of their order who has struggled to make contact at a league average rate. A stunning low level of play from Elly de la Cruz who was projected to contend for the NL MVP this season, yet the Reds speedster has struggled at the plate as he is averaging less than on Hit per game while generating a Batting Average lower than .237 and a OPS less than .800.

While Alcantara has struggled, Brady Singer has managed to sustain a competitive level of play as the Reds pitcher is currently averaging more than one Strikeout and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched in his four starts. He also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Reds defense currently leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants - Freddy Peralta vs. Logan Webb (9:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After going through a roller coaster of a 2024 regular season campaign, Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta has seemingly rounded back into form as the Brewers pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of 1.024, and a FIP of 3.15 in his five appearances on the mound. His success stems from his ability to rack up Strikeouts while avoiding contact as Peralta is also averaging more than one Strikeout and less then one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Against San Francisco, Peralta will have the ability to sustain his high level of play as he faces off against a Giants offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage. A major reason for their struggles comes from the lack of production from the top of their order as Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos both possess a Batting Average lower than .250 and an OPS less than .700.

On the other side of the field, the Brewers offense faces off against Logan Webb who has arguably been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season as he currently leads the league in FIP while generating an ERA of 2.40. Like Peralta, Webb excels at avoiding contact as he averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. The Giants back end also helps limit the amount of variance in their contests as their defense ranks fifth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves - Miles Mikolas vs. Bryce Elder - With Miles Mikolas averaging over 1.5 runners on base and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched, the Atlanta Braves star studded top of their order will have the opportunity to round back into form and open up the scoring early on in their contest against the St. Louis Cardinals.

• San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers - Kyle Hart vs. Reese Olson - Expect the San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers to get into scoring position at a consistent rate as both high powered offenses face off against a pair of pitchers who struggle with keeping opposing runners off the bases as their alarmingly high WHIPs indicate.

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