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Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade a Pair of Offenses Who Struggle to Make Contact

Kody Malstrom
Contributors
Published: Apr. 16, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
5 min read
Best NRFI Bets Today April 16

After severely underwhelming since the start of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola has the opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a San Francisco Giants offense who struggles on offense. Minutes before their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins as a pair of productive arms are set to take the mound.

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San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Robbie Ray vs. Aaron Nola (6:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It’s been a rough start to the year for the Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher as Aaron Nola currently possesses an ERA of 5.51, a WHIP of 1.408, and a FIP of 5.24 while going 0-3 in his three starts. Even though Nola is averaging over one Strikeout per inning, his aggressive nature has been a double edged sword as the Phillies pitcher is also averaging over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. 

Heading into Wednesday, Nola will have a great opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a San Francisco Giants offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage. Especially with Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos in the top of their order struggling to make contact at a league average rate as both players average less than one Hit per game, a Batting Average less than 0.250, and a OPS lower than 0.700.

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Phillies star studded lineup have severely underwhelmed since the start of the year as their offense ranks below league average in the same previously mentioned metrics. A stunning low level of play for a unit who is expected to contend for the World Series. Their struggles are poised to persist against Robbie Ray as the Giants pitcher excels at avoiding contact as he averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins - Brandon Pfaadt vs. Max Meyer (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After entering the year projected to be one of the worst lineups in the league, the Miami Marlins have been able to surpass their low expectations as their offense currently ranks above league average in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage. Unfortunately for Miami, they lack the depth needed to consistently bring home their runners as their offense also resides in the bottom half of the board in Total Runs Scored and in RBIs.

Against Arizona, negative regression looms large over Miami as they face off against Brandon Pfaadt who excels at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position. In his three starts, Pfaadt is averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched while generating a ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.056. The Arizona pitcher is also supported by a productive back end as the Diamondbacks rank above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

Like Pfaadt, Max Meyer has also played at a very high level this season as the Marlins pitcher is averaging an ERA of 2.00, a WHIP of 1.111, and a FIP of 2.64. Every bit of his individual production will be needed against Arizona as he faces off against a Diamondbacks offense who ranks 10th overall in Team Total Hits. Fortunately for Meyer, his back end helps lessen the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Marlins also rank top-15 in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

  • Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers - Jose Soriano vs. Patrick Corbin - With the Los Angeles Angels excelling at bringing home their runners as their top-15 mark in Total Runs Scored indicates, their offense will have the opportunity to get into scoring position early on in their contest against the Texas Rangers as they face off against Patrick Corbin who averages nearly two runners on base per Inning Pitched.

  • Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - German Marquez vs. Bobby Miller - With German Marquez struggling to avoid contact, expect the Los Angeles Dodgers top of their order to open up the scoring in the first inning as the Colorado Rockies pitcher gets the unfortunate favor of facing off against Mookie Betts, reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman who all possess an elite blend of power and contact ability.

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Best NRFI Bets Today: Target a NRFI in a NL East Divisional Matchup

Best NRFI Bets Today: Target a NRFI in a NL East Divisional Matchup

7 hours ago | Kody Malstrom
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Kody Malstrom WSN Contributor

Kody Malstrom

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
MLB
NHL
Betting Picks
Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
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Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Finance
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience: 6 years
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