Best NRFI Bets Today: Target a Pair of Divisional NRFIs

Expect a lack of scoring opportunities in a NL East divisional contest between Philadelphia and Atlanta as both struggling offenses face off against two pitchers who excel at avoiding contact. Well before their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians as both defenses battle it out against a pair of offenses who fail to make contact at a league average rate.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Jesus Luzardo vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (7:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It’s been a turbulent start to the year for the Philadelphia Phillies as their offense has struggled to play at a competitive level. Even though their offense excels at getting on base at a high rate, the Phillies have failed to capitalize on their scoring opportunities as they rank below league average in Team Total Hits and RBIs. A stunning low level of play for an offense who retained a majority of their core that ranked near the top of the board in the same metrics last season.

To make matters worse for Philadelphia, negative regression looms large over their elite top of their order as they face off against Atlanta’s Spencer Schwellenbach who has quickly built a case for being one of the betting favorites for the NL Cy Young award. Schwellenbach has been dominant in his starts this season as the Braves pitcher has conceded only three Hits Against in 14 Innings Pitched while averaging a ERA of 0.00, WHIP of 0.286, and a FIP of 1.50. 

Fortunately for the Phillies, their starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo will have a great opportunity to match Schwellenbach’s level of production as he faces off against a Braves offense who ranks in the bottom ten in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage. Especially with two of the first three batters in the top of their order struggling to make contact as Michael Harris and Ozzie Albies both possess a Batting Average lower than 0.230 and an OPS less than 0.590.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians - Jonathan Cannon vs. Gavin Williams (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After losing 121 games last season, the Chicago White Sox are in for another dreadful year as their offense ranks in the bottom four in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. The lack of production from the top of their order leaves them prone to slow starts as Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Austin Slater all average less than one Hit per game and a On Base Percentage lower than 0.300.

Their inability to play at a competitive level bodes well for Cleveland’s Gavin Williams as the Guardians pitcher has struggled to find his footing this season. After finishing Spring Training with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.981, Williams has failed to sustain his high level of play as he is currently averaging an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.625 in the regular season. Expect Williams to round back into form by taking advantage of the White Sox lack of contact ability.

While the White Sox offense have struggled, their defense has played at a high level as their back end ranks fourth in Defensive Efficiency. Their coverage helps limit the amount of variance in their contests and puts their pitchers in a better position to succeed. With Cleveland’s offense also grading out poorly in the same offensive metrics, expect the White Sox defense to mask Jonathan Cannon’s WHIP of 1.500 and hold the Guardians scoreless in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals - Bailey Ober vs. Michael Wacha - With Bailey Ober and Michael Wacha possessing little control of their command, expect the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals top of their orders to take advantage of their struggles and get into scoring position from the opening pitch.

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox - Chris Bassitt vs. Walker Buehler - Walker Buehler’s inability to avoid contact will be on full display against Toronto as he faces off against a Blue Jays offense who ranks top-10 in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

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