Best NRFI Bets Today: Back a Pair of Cy Young Favorites

Negative regression looms large over the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals offense as they face off against Paul Skenes who has continued to play at a very high level in his sophomore season. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards Toronto and Boston as Garrett Crochet looks to strengthen his position at the top of the Cy Young award oddsboard by taking advantage of an offense who struggles with making contact.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Sonny Gray vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After narrowly winning the NL Cy Young award in his rookie season, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes, has seemingly picked up from where he left off as the Pirates pitcher is averaging an ERA of 1.46, a WHIP of 0.649, and a FIP of 1.46. Skenes’ elite command and power were on full display in his two starts this year as he is also averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Even with the St. Louis Cardinals' offense ranking top-4 in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage, Skenes possesses more than enough production to neutralize their red-hot bats. Especially with the Cardinals' top of their order having a weak link in their chain as Willson Contreras possesses a Batting Average of just .105. Without his productive bat, Skenes has a higher chance of escaping the first inning with a clean sheet.

In an attempt to match Skenes' hot start, Sonny Gray looks to round back into form after an unfortunate start to his season. While he has managed to limit the number of runners on base by possessing a WHIP of 1.000, opposing offenses have maximized on their minimal scoring opportunities, as his ERA of 5.73 indicates. With Pittsburgh’s offense struggling to make contact at a league-average rate, expect Sonny to hold the Pirates scoreless in the first inning.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox - Easton Lucas vs. Garrett Crochet (6:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like Skenes, the Boston Red Sox newly acquired pitcher Garrett Crochet, also came up just short of winning the Cy Young award after rivaling Tarik Skubal for a majority of the season. With Skubal struggling to get out of the gate this year after two straight underwhelming outings, Crochet has seen his odds to win the award steadily grow as he is now listed as the new betting favorite to win the award.

Against Toronto, Crochet will have the opportunity to further strengthen his position at the top of the oddsboard as he faces off against a Blue Jays offense who struggles with bringing home their runners on base. Especially with their contact rate expected to decline as Crochet excels at avoiding contact as the former Chicago White Sox pitcher averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched while generating a WHIP of 0.923 and FIP of 1.93.

On the other side of the field, the Blue Jays' Easton Lucas looks to continue his hot stretch of play after finishing his debut with an ERA of 0.00, a WHIP of 0.600, just 1 Hit Against, and 3 total Strikeouts. Even though he faces off against a Red Sox offense who resides near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, Lucas gets the benefit of being supported by a back end who ranks ninth in Defensive Efficiency which lessens the probability of a broken play happening.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Charlie Morton vs. Merrill Kelly - With Charlie Morton and Merrill Kelly averaging a WHIP higher than 1.900, expect the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as they face off against a pair of offenses who rank above league average in On Base Percentage and Team Total Hits.

• Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs - Patrick Corbin vs. Jameson Taillon - After leading the league in Total Hits Against and Earned Runs Allowed last season, our favorite fade target makes his return to the mound as Patrick Corbin is set to battle it out against a Chicago Cubs offense who ranks first overall in Contact Rate.

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