Best NRFI Bets Today: Regression Looms Large Over the Marlins Offense

After playing the Pittsburgh Pirates to start their year, negative regression looms large over the Miami Marlins as their quality of opponent ramps up with Kodai Senga taking the mound in game two of their series against the New York Mets. Later in the night, we back Hayden Wesneski to round back into form as he gets the benefit of throwing against a San Francisco Giants offense who has struggled to play at a competitive level this season.

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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins - Kodai Senga vs. Sandy Alcantara (6:40 PM, EST)

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After missing all of last season with an injury, the Miami Marlins' former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara made a statement in his return as he finished the contest against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 3.86, a WHIP of 1.286, and 7 total Strikeouts. Not nearly the same as his dominant Spring Training performance where he finished with a WHIP of 0.973, yet an impressive debut nonetheless for a pitcher who is still shaking off the rust after a lengthy absence.

Fortunately for Alcantara, he faces off against a New York Mets offense who has struggled to get into a groove since the start of the season. Even after acquiring Juan Soto, the Mets have still severely underwhelmed as they rank below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Speaking of Soto, he is the only Met who currently possesses a Batting Average over 0.300 and a On Base Percentage higher than 0.500.

While the Mets have struggled, the Marlins' offense have thrived as they rank near the top of the board in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Granted this is a small sample size and they lack the talent needed to sustain these marks. Especially when they face off against Kodai Senga as the Mets pitcher finished the preseason with an ERA of 2.00 while being supported by a productive back end who ranks seventh overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros - Logan Webb vs. Hayden Wesneski (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It was an underwhelming start to the season for the San Francisco Giants' Logan Webb as he finished the contest against Cincinnati with an ERA of 5.40 and WHIP of 1.800. A stunning low level of play for the Cy Young contender, especially after putting together a dominant Spring Training as he finished the preseason with an ERA of 1.77, a WHIP of 0.738, and just 12 Hits against in 20.1 Innings Pitched.

While a matchup against the World Series contending Houston Astros seems daunting on paper for Webb, their offense has struggled to play at a competitive level since the start of the season. As of writing, the Astros' offense ranks in the bottom half of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Without Kyle Tucker’s power and contact ability, Houston’s top of their order are more vulnerable than ever for a slow start to the contest.

The Giants offense have also severely underwhelmed as they head into Tuesday’s contest ranked 28th overall in On Base Percentage and 22nd in Team Total Hits. Their inability to make contact bodes well for Hayden Wesneski as the Astros pitcher has struggled with keeping opposing runners off the bases throughout Spring Training as his WHIP of 1.448 indicates. Expect Wesneski to round back into form and hold the Giants scoreless in the first inning.

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