Best NRFI Bets Today: Back a Pair of All Star Pitchers

Normally a pair of offenses to avoid when wagering on an NRFI, we fade the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies top of their orders as they are set to face off against a pair of All Star pitchers. After that takes place, we turn our sights towards the matchup between Kansas City and Houston as the Royals look to neutralize the Astros' offensive production off the arm of Seth Lugo.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Reynaldo Lopez vs. Ranger Suarez (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

Friday’s slate of games brings us an exciting NL East matchup with the current division leader Philadelphia Phillies set to battle it out against the surging Atlanta Braves. With a little over a month left of the season, the Braves need to be near perfect should they want to leap over the Phillies in the division standings. More importantly, the Braves need to keep winning in order to hold on to their wildcard spot as they only have a two-game lead over the New York Mets.

Should the Braves want to put themselves in a better position to upset the Phillies, then they will need to limit their offensive production as Philadelphia ranks near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Their elite top of the order carries a brunt of their offensive production, fielding the likes of slugger Kyle Schwarber, former two-time Hits Leader Trea Turner, and two-time MLB MVP Bryce Harper.

Fortunately for Atlanta, they will be in a position to limit the Phillies' offensive production off the arm of Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has excelled at avoiding contact this season, taking the mound with an ERA of 2.02, an FIP of 2.99, 96 Hits Against, and just 26 Earned Runs Allowed in 21 games played. Every bit of his production on the mound will be needed as the Braves' back end has been putrid as of late, sliding down to 26th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, the Phillies roll out Ranger Suarez who has seemingly rounded back into form after going through a horrific cold stretch pre All Star break. Like Lopez, Suarez has also excelled at avoiding contact while limiting the number of opposing runners on base as he enters the contest with an ERA of 2.82, a WHIP of 1.062, an FIP of 2.95, just 104 Hits Against, and 39 Earned Runs Allowed.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros - Seth Lugo vs. Framber Valdez (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

After the conclusion of our first NRFI, we target another pair of playoff contenders with the Kansas City Royals facing off against the Houston Astros. While the Astros have a firm lead at the top of the AL West, the Royals are just one game back from first in the AL Central. That puts the Royals in a must-win situation, especially since the current division-leading Cleveland Guardians get a more favorable series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Should Kansas City want to close the gap between them and Cleveland with a win over Houston, then their defense will need to halt the Astros scoring pace. In a desperate attempt to do so, the Royals roll out Seth Lugo who has flirted with Cy Young award contention. Lugo has put together a successful 2024 campaign, entering the contest with an ERA of 3.19, a WHIP of 1.122, 146 Total Strikeouts, and just 120 Hits Against.

As for the Astros, they roll out Framber Valdez who has done a commendable job at turning around his season after a roller coaster of a start to his year. He now gets the opportunity to continue to build momentum as he faces off against a Royals offense who has struggled with getting on base at a consistent rate. Expect Valdez to continue to hold them off the bases, taking the mound with a WHIP of 1.144.

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