Best NRFI Bets Today: Mariners Offensive Woes Poised to Continue

After a lackluster series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Seattle Mariners look to revive their hopes of grabbing the last wildcard spot off the backs of their defense against a regressing San Francisco Giants offense. Before that takes place, we focus on the matchup between the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians as both struggling offenses are set to face off against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, check out our guide on Daily No Run First Inning.

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San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners - Hayden Birdsong vs. Luis Castillo (10:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

After relinquishing their lead at the top of the AL West standings to the Houston Astros, the Seattle Mariners have steadily fallen behind as the losses rack up at an alarming rate. Not only have the Mariners seen their chances of winning the division slowly disappear, but their hopes of making the playoffs are on the same trajectory as the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals grow their lead in the wildcard standings.

A major reason for their recent struggles stems from their anemic offense, a unit that has failed to generate any sort of competitive production as they rank near dead last across the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Even after the trade for the Miami Marlins' Randy Arozarena, the Mariners' offense has still struggled to elevate their level of offensive production.

Their struggles on offense will be tested heading into this matchup as they are set to face off against the Giants' Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong has had an unfortunate start to his career, possessing an ERA of 5.01 and WHIP of 1.379 in nine games played. Normally a pair of metrics to avoid for an NRFI, yet positive regression looms large as he also averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched while generating 49 Total Strikeouts.

While the Giants Birdsong looks to round back into form, Seattle’s Luis Castillo has been a steady source of production for a Mariners defense that ranks first overall in Defensive Efficiency. Castillo has excelled at limiting opposing offensive production in his 2024 campaign, taking the mound with a WHIP of 1.171 and a FIP of 3.70. Expect Castillo to continue to succeed as he faces off against a Giants offense that has mightily regressed in their efforts of getting on base at a league-average rate.

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Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Nathan Eovaldi vs. Tanner Bibee (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

Speaking of missing out on the playoffs, the reigning World Series champions are in serious jeopardy of doing just that as the Texas Rangers are currently 10 games back from the Houston Astros in the AL West and 12 games back from the last wildcard spot. As for the Guardians, their lead for first in the AL Central standings continues to diminish as they battle through the second-hardest remaining strength of schedule.

Should the Guardians want to build back up their lead in the division standings, then their defense will need to take advantage of a Rangers offense that has struggled to play at a competitive level. Tanner Bibee is capable of doing just that as he has continued to limit the number of opposing runners on base. Entering Friday’s contest against the Rangers, Bibee takes the mound with an ERA of 3.33, a WHIP of 1.081, an FIP of 3.40, 111 Hits Against, and just 49 Earned Runs Allowed in 24 games played.

On the other side of the field, the Rangers' defense makes up for a majority of their team’s overall production as they enter the contest ranked sixth overall in Defensive Efficiency. Starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has played a key role in their high marks on defense, taking the mound with a WHIP of 1.087 and FIP of 3.90. With Cleveland’s offense continuing to struggle with making contact, expect Eovaldi to hold the Guardians offense scoreless early on in their contest.

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