Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Paul Skenes to Round Back Into Form

After two straight underwhelming performances by his standards, Paul Skenes is in a great position to round back into form against one of the worst offenses in the league. Backing Skenes means we also get to simultaneously fade the Pirates' offense as their struggles with generating offensive production are poised to continue against the Mariners' Logan Gilbert.

For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, have a look at our guide on Daily No Run First Inning.

When looking to make a wager on an NRFI, it’s vital to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop the very volatile market. Each sportsbook has its own unique signup bonus, giving new users a boost to their bankroll to wager with during the MLB season.

FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $150 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and winning their first bet of at least $5 wagered. Be sure to wager the $5 on a heavy favorite immediately after signing up, maximizing your chances of winning and collecting the $150 in bonus bets.

Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Logan Gilbert vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-155) at FanDuel

Once looking like a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, the San Diego Padres Jackson Merrill has closed the gap on the Pirates pitcher after his recent cold stretch of play. In his last two games, Skenes has combined for 11 Hits Against, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 4 Batters Walked, and 12 Total Strikeouts. While not disastrous, it’s still a level of play we haven't seen from him since making his debut.

Fortunately for Skenes, he gets a great opportunity to round back into form as he is set to face off against a Mariners offense that ranks near dead last across the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Their lack of offensive production may very well be their downfall as the Mariners continue to see the Astros grow their lead for first at the top of the AL West Division standings. 

While Seattle’s top of their batting order has improved after the acquisition of Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline, they still lack the surrounding production needed to be a competitive unit. With the Mariners unable to make contact and get on base at a competitive rate, expect Skenes to revert back to his play that resulted in an ERA of 2.25, WHIP of 0.957, and FIP of 2.73.

Not only do we get to back Skenes' elite arm, we also simultaneously fade the Pirates' offense as they rank below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Every bit of their offensive struggles will be on full display as they are set to face off against the Mariners Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has done a masterful job at keeping opposing runners off the bases and out of scoring position, taking the mound with a WHIP of 0.873, 149 Total Strikeouts, and just 108 Hits Against in 24 games played.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels - Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Jose Soriano (9:38 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel

After the injuries to former MLB MVP Ronald Acuna Jr and Mike Trout, both the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels have struggled to generate any sort of offensive production. While the Angels came into the year with tempered expectations, the Braves were projected to field a lineup that would lead them to a deep run in the playoffs as one of the preseason betting favorites to win the World Series.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, they never were able to find their footing as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Expect their struggles to persist as the Angels Jose Soriano has excelled at avoiding contact and limiting opposing offensive production, taking the mound with an ERA of 3.36, FIP of 3.82, 88 Hits Against, and 41 Earned Runs Allowed.

Like their offense, the Braves' defense has also steadily regressed throughout the year as they currently rank below league average in Defensive Efficiency. Luckily for them, Spencer Schwellenbach is more than capable of masking their lack of defensive production with his own play on the mound as his WHIP of 1.061 and FIP of 3.33 suggests. Expect the Angels offense to continue to struggle, even with the Braves defense playing at a near league worst rate.

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