Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade the Blue Jays Against Jack Flaherty

With Tarik Skubal potentially getting traded, Jack Flaherty gets an opportunity to make his case as the next ace for the Detroit Tigers in a favorable matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays underwhelming offense. While that takes place, we target the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians as both offenses are in a position to to struggle against a pair of productive pitchers.

For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, check out our breakdown of Daily No Run First Inning.

When looking to make a wager on a NRFI, it’s vital to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop the very volatile market. Each sportsbook has their own unique signup bonus, giving new users a boost to their bankroll to wager with during the MLB season.

FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $200 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and winning their first bet of at least $5 wagered. Be sure to wager the $5 on a heavy favorite immediately after signing up, maximizing your chances of winning and collecting the $200 in bonus bets.

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Jack Flaherty vs. Chris Bassitt (7:07 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

For a team that has mightily struggled in their 2024 campaign by ranking fourth in the AL Central standings with underwhelming metrics across the board on both sides of the field, it’s almost unfathomable that the Tigers are willing to trade their most consistent source of production in Tarik Skubal. The unfortunate reality is that they may be better off continuing to acquire assets, even at the cost of giving up the current AL Cy Young betting favorite.

As the next man up, Jack Flaherty gets an opportunity to continue to succeed against a Blue Jays offense that ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Expect Toronto’s struggles to continue against Flaherty as he has excelled at limiting the number of opposing runners in scoring position. Flaherty takes the mound with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 0.979.

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Tigers have been unable to generate any sort of consistency as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. A head scratching level of play for a unit that features plenty of young prospects who were poised to continue to take the next step with their production, yet their inconsistencies have been the norm for a majority of the season.

The Tigers offensive struggles bodes well for the sake of the NRFI, especially with the Blue Jays Chris Bassitt flirting with negative regression. While Bassitt has been able to minimize the amount of runs brought in with an ERA of 3.52, he has been prone to putting himself in dangerous situations with a WHIP of 1.435 due to his high Walk Rate. Expect positive regression to swing towards his way against a Tigers offense that struggles to make contact and get into scoring position.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians - Matt Waldron vs. Tanner Bibee (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-128) at FanDuel

Even though the Cleveland Guardians enter the second half of the season at the top of the AL Central standings, their lead for first is far from safe as they only have a 4.5 game lead over the surging Minnesota Twins. Expect a tight race until the end as their quality of opponent is expected to ramp up, possessing the second hardest remaining strength of schedule.

Should the Guardians want to hold on to their lead for first, then their defense will need to continue to limit opposing scoring opportunities as they rank top-10 in Defensive Efficiency. Especially when facing off against league leading Hits contender Luis Arraez and the Padres offense, competing against a unit that ranks near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Tanner Bibee has proved to be able to do just that, taking the mound with a WHIP of 1.124 and FIP of 3.34.

As for Cleveland’s offense, they have flirted with negative regression due to their ability to maximize scoring opportunities while ranking well below league average in Team Total Hits. Their inability to create Hits at a consistent rate bodes well against the Padres Matt Waldron as he struggles to avoid opposing contact. With an uptick in pitching production looming for Waldorn, expect minimal scoring opportunities in favor of the NRFI.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-128) at FanDuel

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