Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Skenes to Shut Down the Dodgers

Friday’s slate brings a full helping of games, giving us plenty of NRFIs for us to choose from. Two of them stick out above the rest as a crop of underwhelming offenses face off against productive arms. Those offenses include the Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, and Colorado Rockies who all currently rank below league average in key offensive metrics. For more information about the NRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, check out our breakdown of Daily No Run First Inning.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Joe Ryan vs. Mitch Keller (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-128) at FanDuel

It’s been a rough start to the year for the Minnesota Twins as they were the preseason betting favorite to win the AL Central division title yet are currently third in the standings. Now nearing 10 games back from first, the Twins chances of winning the division are steadily declining as the current leader Cleveland Guardians continue to win. This also affects their postseason chances, seeing their wildcard hopes slip away as well.

A big reason for their early season struggles stem from their offense as they have yet to string together any sort of consistent offensive production. They come into the contest ranked below league average across the board in Team Total Hits, On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and RBIs. Slight positive regression does loom over the Twins as their On Base percentage steadily creeps up the board.

Fortunately for us, the Twins offensive woes are poised to continue to struggle against the Pirates Mitch Keller. Keller has had a modest start to the season as the Pirates starting pitcher, coming into the contest with an ERA of 3.42, a WHIP of 1.222, 66 Total Strikeouts, 70 Hits Allowed, and 28 Earned Runs Against. His Total Hits Allowed mark is concerning, yet should be neutralized as the Twins struggle to make contact.

As for the Pirates, it’s been a tale of two different stories as their defense continues to succeed yet their offense has failed to give them the production they need in order to be competitive. Like the Twins, the Pirates offense ranks even lower in the previously mentioned metrics with no hope in sight. Their struggles are now in a position to continue against the Twins Joe Ryan who takes the mound with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.014.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-128) at FanDuel

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Austin Gomber vs. Lance Lynn (8:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel

Like the Minnesota Twins, the St. Louis Cardinals have had the same trajectory at this point of the season. They came into the year as the preseason favorite to win the NL Central division title, yet managed to get off to a horrific start that saw them near the bottom of the standings. They have since managed to climb back up the board, yet are still comfortably behind the current division leader Milwaukee Brewers and are seeing their division title hopes slowly evaporate.

Scoring has been a major issue for the Cardinals offense, currently ranked in the bottom-3 in Total Runs Scored and RBIs. They struggle to generate any sort of consistency with getting batters on base, ranking well below league average in On Base Percentage and Total Hits as well. Offensive production will be tough to come by once again as the Rockies Austin Gomber takes the mound with a WHIP of 1.184.

As for the Rockies offense, positive regression looms large for a squad who ranks above league average in Team Total Hits yet below average in Runs Scored and RBIs. The issue is that regression may be held off against the Cardinals Lance Lynn. Lynn excels at staying in front of the count, putting opposing batters in higher pressure situations. He takes the mound with an ERA of 3.23, a WHIP of 1.337, 57 Hits Allowed, and 22 Earned Runs Against.

Bet on Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel

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