Best NRFI Bets Today: Time to Fade the Braves Offense

Monday’s slate brings a full plate of games for us to groom through, providing plenty of NRFI opportunities as well. While it’s normally wise to fade underwhelming offenses who struggle to make contact and get runners in scoring position, Monday’s NRFIs feature a crop of above-average hitting units that are poised to get neutralized against elite pitching production. For more information about the NRFI market and what other factors to look for when making a wager on them, read our breakdown of Daily No Run First Inning.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Shota Imanaga vs. Reynaldo Lopez (7:20 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-118) at FanDuel

It may seem odd to back the idea of a run not being scored early in a game involving the Atlanta Braves, but it’s hard to ignore how hard their offense has regressed the past few weeks. A slump puts it lightly as this unit has gone from near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, Runs Scored, and RBIs to just league average. A shocking dip for a team that boasts elite depth from top to bottom of their batting order.

To make matters worse for the Braves' offensive production free fall, they now face off against the Cubs' Shota Imanaga who has played as one of the best pitchers in the league. A fan favorite, Shota enters the contest with an ERA of 1.08, a WHIP of 0.816, 43 Total Strikeouts, 29 Hits Allowed, five Batters Walked, and five Earned Runs Against in just seven games played.

His elite pitching production is exactly what is needed when facing off against one of the best top-of-the-orders in baseball, a unit that features reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, speedster Ozzie Albies, elite contact hitter Austin Riley, and former home run leader Matt Olson. With Imanaga possessing full control of his command, he can neutralize the Braves top-heavy order and limit early scoring potential.

The Cubs' offense has not fared off much better than their counterpart as they also rank below average in Team Total Hits. They now face off against the Braves Reynaldo Lopez who comes into the matchup with an ERA of 1.53, a WHIP of 1.132, 36 Strikeouts, 14 Batters Walked, 26 Hits Allowed, and six Earned Runs Against. His WHIP indicates potential negative regression as he has lucked out in the scoring against department, yet the Braves defense gives him assurance as they rank sixth in Defensive Efficiency.

Bet on Under 0.5. Run (-118) at FanDuel

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Jose Berrios vs. Corbin Burnes (6:35 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-122) at FanDuel

As if fading the Braves' offense was not scary enough, we also fade the Baltimore Orioles' bats when they face off against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles offense has played as one of the best units in the league so far in 2024, ranking well above average in Team Total Hits, Runs Scored, and RBIs while leadoff man Gunnar Henderson is being pegged as a potential AL MVP candidate.

While they have played as one of the best offenses in the league, production may be tough to come by against Jose Berrios as he has had an impressive start to his season. Berrios comes into the matchup with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 1.120 and now faces an offense that is poised to negatively regress back toward the mean as the Orioles' On Base Percentage sinks to below-league-average marks.

As for the Orioles, they trot out their star ace pitcher Corbin Burnes who has seen his name at the top of the odds board to win the AL Cy Young award. He is in a position to continue to dominate as he faces off against a reeling Blue Jays offense that ranks well below average in Team Total Hits, Runs Scored, and RBIs. Especially, if their star hitter Bo Bichette continues to struggle as he currently only has 28 Total Hits and a Batting Average of 0.200.

Bet on Under 0.5. Run (-122) at FanDuel

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