Best NRFI Bets Today: Guardians vs. Twins (9:40 PM, EST)
1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-130) at FanDuel
The Guardians have been playing well and are climbing the World Series futures market board. Their offense has been shockingly good this season, which is a significant improvement from one year ago when they were 27th in runs scored.
However, we will fade their offense in the first inning on Thursday against Pablo Lopez. Lopez dominated the Royals in his first start of the season.
He is currently 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. Over seven innings of work, he has allowed just four hits with seven strikeouts. Pitching seven innings in a season debut is impressive, and it shows Lopez has the stamina to compete early.
The wildcard in this contest will be Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. Bibee has a 6.75 ERA and a 2.75 WHIP. He has allowed six hits in four innings of work with five walks, which are our most significant concern for the NRFI.
Yet, he has been relatively good over his career with limiting hits and walks. If he doesn’t give up free passes, the Twins offense should have a tough time putting the ball in play.
Minnesota has been terrible offensively at the beginning of the season. They’re batting .211 as a team, with just two homers in five games.
As long as Bibee doesn’t walk too many batters, the NRFI has excellent value at -130.
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Best NRFI Bets Today: Tigers vs. Mets (12:10 PM, EST)
1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-120) at FanDuel
The Tigers and Mets are in entirely different situations to begin the season. Detroit is 4-0 and has high hopes in the American League Central division. The New York Mets are 0-4, have no chance of winning the National League East, and are in a massive rebuild.
Their rebuild has been evident based on their early offensive numbers. New York is batting .188 as a team with a .250 OBP and just eight runs in four games. These numbers are the reason they’re 0-4 on the year.
New York has a few big bats, but this team is very young, and they’re looking to the future for championships. The Tigers' offense hasn’t been much better, but their pitching staff has been excellent.
However, we will see some new pitchers on the mound Thursday due to rainouts. Casey Mize, one of the Tigers' top prospects from a few years ago, will take the ball. Mize hasn’t pitched since 2022 with Tommy John’s surgery, so look for him to be excited to pitch.
The Mets don’t present many offensive challenges for Mize, which should help his cause. Adrian Houser will make his Mets debut, coming over from Milwaukee in the offseason.
However, he is a reputable starter capable of getting three outs in the first inning. Houser had a 4.12 ERA last season with a 1.39 WHIP.
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