Best NRFI Bets Today: Pirates vs. Marlins (4:10 PM, EST)
Under 0.5 Runs (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
This is our favorite NRFI bet of the weekend. It features two teams that both finished in the top seven in NRFI percentage last season. The Marlins led the league by covering NRFI bets in 61% of games, while the Pirates were seventh at 52%.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features two upcoming prospects. The Pirates will trot out rookie Jared Jones, who was the Pirates' third-ranked prospect. He dominated in Spring Training, forcing his way into the rotation and the Rookie of the Year conversation. Jones has a fastball that ranges in the upper-90’s that pairs well with solid off-speed stuff. That helps him induce a lot of swinging strikes, and it will take time for the Marlins to figure him out today.
The Marlins will start former Padres prospect Ryan Weathers. The 24-year-old only has three pitches, but scouts believe his ceiling is high. He had a rough run in 2023, but Miami hopes he’ll be primed for a breakout this season. In Weather's last start last season, he dominated the Pirates in Pittsburgh, allowing two hits and zero runs across six innings.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Red Sox vs. Mariners (9:40 PM, EST)
Under 0.5 Runs (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
While the Red Sox and Mariners have a ton of impressive bats, we see this as the next bet NRFI bet of the weekend. A big reason for that is Kutter Crawford, who will be on the mound for the Red Sox. The 27-year-old has a solid 2023 campaign, and allowed just six first-inning runs across 22 games.
Crawford faced the Mariners once last season, holding the Mariners scoreless for an impressive road start. While it's hard to read too much into one game, it did come during Seattle’s late-season push to win the AL West. It was one of Krawford impressive road starts to close the season, and we think he keeps it rolling in the first inning tonight.
Starting opposite of Krawford is Logan Gilbert. The Mariners starter has become a key piece of the rotation, finishing last season with a 13-7, 3.73 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP. He only faced the Red Sox once last season, posting a quality start over seven innings.
The top of the Red Sox lineup is very impressive, but Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and Trevor Story are a combined 2-13 against Gilbert. We don’t see that trend turning around the first time they see him tonight.
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