Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, June 24 and 25

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This is our favorite NRFI bet this weekend for three reasons. The first is the talent of these offenses. The Rangers lead the league in batting average, RBIs, and on-base percentage. The Yankees' offensive numbers have been disappointing, but they have the league's fourth-most home runs. Even without Aaron Judge, this lineup should have a great chance to steal one against Jon Gray (6-2, 2.96 ERA) in today's first inning.

While Gray is having a fantastic season for Texas, he could be vulnerable tonight for a few reasons. One is that he is coming off his worst start of the season against the Jays, where he gave up six runs, including one in the first inning. Gray has allowed a first-inning run in two of his last four starts. The veteran has also been bad in day games, with a 4.00 ER across five starts. The Yankees have the talent and can tag Gray for a run early.

The final reason we love this bet is Yankees’ starter Luis Severino (0-2, 6.30). The veteran righty returned from injury late last month and looked great, but he was awful in June. Severino has a 9.16 ERA across four starts this month, facing offenses far worse than the one he’ll see today. Look for Severino to get into big trouble in the first inning, leading to an easy NRFI cover.

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This is another excellent NRFI bet for this weekend, thanks mainly to the Mariners. The team will have rookie Bryce Miller (5-3, 3.68 ERA) on the bump today. The young starter had a mini two-game slump but has bounced back in his last two starts to allow two earned runs over 13 innings. The rookie has had a quality start in seven of his nine games this season, showing he has had no problem adapting to the MLB. The Orioles are good on offense, but it will take them at least one time through the lineup to figure out Miller.

We also love this bet because of the Seattle offense. While they have no shortage of talent, they have been one of the worst lineups in all of baseball. They rank in the bottom ten in the league in runs, batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. While Baltimore starter Dean Kremer (8-3, 4.56 ERA) has struggled with consistency, he is good enough to shut down the Mariners through at least the first inning.

Speaking of Kremer, the Orioles faced the Mariners for the first time last season, and was fantastic. The start came at home, and Kremer threw seven shutout innings. The Mariners' offense was far better last season, so we see Kremer having another strong outing against them tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-125 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This is an easy bet to make, given how bad these offenses have been in 2023. They both rank in the bottom ten of the league in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Both teams can hit for power but struggle even to get men on base. It hasn’t been pretty to watch, and tonight’s pitchers should be able to do enough to lead to a quiet first inning.

Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.60 ERA) will be on the mound for Milwaukee today. The 27-year-old has regressed in 2023, and he now owns an ugly 1.32 WHIP. However, most of his problems have come later in games. Peralta has allowed a first-inning run just once in his previous six starts. While he has struggled with control, Peralta’s strikeout stuff is nasty and incredibly difficult to hit when you have not seen him before. That will work in his favor early today, leading to a clean first inning.

The Guardians will have Tanner Bibee (3-2, 4.05 ERA) starting tonight. The rookie is having a rough June, but there are signs that he could be in for a good start today. Bibee has a 2.57 ERA at home and a 2.59 ERA during day games. He may not get the win, but he will be good enough to get through the first inning against a bad Brewers offense.