Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, July 29-30

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays - Reid Detmers (L) vs Alek Manoah (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

This will be one of the safest bets of this weekend and is the best YRFI option available. We have two struggling pitchers on the mound, and both will have their hands full this afternoon. The Blue Jays have one of the best young offenses in all of baseball and two budding superstars in Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette. Their lineup has been scoring consistently of late, averaging 6.16 runs over their last six games. They will have a great chance to keep that impressive run going against Reid Detmers tonight.

Detmers (2-7, 4.38 ERA) had an incredible month in June, showing why the Angels believe he is a key part of their future. The hot streak suddenly stopped earlier this month, and he now has a 6.64 ERA across four July starts. The Jays tagged Detmers for four runs over five innings back in April, meaning they will be confident against the young lefty and ready to do damage early today.

The Angels' offense has struggled for most of the season. Though they were shut down by Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman last night, this Angels lineup has been hot of late, scoring at least six runs in four of their previous five games. They scored in the first inning three times in those five games. That is bad news for Jays’ starter Alek Manoah (2-8, 6.10 ERA), who has been horrible in 2023. His problems have come early in games, with opponents posting a .311 batting average and a .571 slugging percentage against him the first time through the lineup. Add that to the fact that Toronto’s Matt Chapman was caught bashing the LA lineup, and you can see why this is the best bet of the weekend.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals - James Taillon (R) vs Adam Wainwright (R)

Over 0.5 Runs (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)

While we can’t rely on the St. Louis offense, we are all in on the Cubs to score a run in the first inning. One big reason for that is the play at the plate, scoring seven or more runs in five of their previous six games. They now have the eighth-highest run total in the league. This lineup can hit, and many believe the team will push for an NL wildcard spot. The Cubbies' offense was challenged by Jordan Montgomery last night, but they will have a much easier test today with an over-the-hill Adam Wainright on the mound.

We have made a lot of money betting against Wainright (3-4, 7.31 ERA) this season. The 41-year-old looked sharp in 2022, but things have fallen apart this season. He has allowed a first-inning run in his last two games and has done so in half of his starts this season. Wainwright was hammered by the Cubs last month, allowing seven runs over just three innings. Add all that to the fact that opponents own a .333 batting average the first time they face him, and this bet is a no-brainer.

The Cardinals' offense will have their hands full tonight against Jameson Taillon (4-6, 5.75 ERA). While his season numbers are ugly, the 31-year-old has looked good over his last three starts, including one against St. Louis last weekend. While we are banking on the Cubs to win this bet for us, the Red Birds could certainly tag the veteran for a run early. Taillon will face Nolan Arenado in the first inning, who is 7-11 against the Cubs starter. Arenado has been great in July and will be a problem for Taillon in tonight’s first inning.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves - Julio Teheran (R) vs Bryce Elder (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (Under 0.5 Runs +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This bet has great value and will lead to some nice payouts. Bookmakers look at this matchup between a loaded Braves offense against a red-hot Brewer lineup. However, we are betting on these two starting pitchers tonight. While these two teams put up a combined 17 runs last night, they did not score in the first inning. In fact, there has not been a first-inning score in the last three games between these two teams. We see that number going up tonight, especially with Bryce Elder on the mound for the Braves.

The Braves have one of the best young pitchers in the league in Bryce Elder (7-2, 3.30 ERA). Though he had a mini-slump this month, he broke out against this same Brewers team last Sunday. He held the Brewers to two runs over six innings, holding them off the board until the third inning. Elder has only allowed 12 runs the first time through a lineup this season, and that steak is going to continue. While the Brewers lineup is seeing the ball well, we see the righty cruising through the first inning.

Julio Teheran (2-4, 3.75 ERA) will be on the mound for Milwaukee as he faces his former team. The veteran was signed by the Brewers back in May, and he has become a good piece of this Milwaukee rotation. One of his most impressive performances came last week against the Braves, where he allowed one run on three hits across six innings. While we aren’t sure if he will be able to match that tonight, we believe being back in Atlanta will give him some extra motivation and lead to a hit-start.