Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props October 17

Nick Castellanos Home Run (+500 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Philadelphia Phillies dominated the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLCS. The team won 5-3, but the score wasn’t as close as it may seem. Philadelphia has been locked in at the plate, and the entire lineup appears to be going yard consistently. 

Bryce Harper made history on Monday, hitting a home run on his birthday. This was significant, but it wasn’t nearly as monumental as Nick Castellanos tying Mr. October, Reggie Jackson’s home run record. Castellanos hit his fifth home run in three games, which tied Jackson’s playoff record. 

There isn’t a more dangerous hitter for the Phillies currently than Castellanos. The value is high on his line at +500 because bookmakers are pricing him for a cool down on Tuesday. Yet, we don’t believe this will be the case. 

Merrill Kelly will pitch for Arizona, and he has been outstanding in one postseason start. However, he showed many weaknesses in the regular season. In one game against the Phillies this season, he allowed three runs on three hits with four walks. 

Casetallanos had an RBU in that game on a sac fly, and he just missed sending that pitch over the fence. The batter is becoming the new Mr. October in 2023, and for +500, it’s worth sprinkling him to go yard. 

Trea Turner 2+ Total Bases (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trea Turner has been quietly good in the playoffs, especially when it comes to hitting his total bases prop. He has hit 2+ bases in four straight playoff games, and his numbers have been dominant. 

The shortstop is 9-17 over this stretch, with three doubles, two homers, and five runs. There are multiple ways to bet on Turner tonight because he has so much value. He is a multifaceted hitter who can strike with power and contact. 

Turner was 1-4 off of Kelly earlier in the season. He had a run in the game, but Turner wasn’t locked in at the plate at this time. He was just a .249 hitter when the teams battled. He is a much more dominant plate presence and will take advantage of a Kelly mistake on Tuesday. 

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Aaron Nola and the Phillies pitching staff have been exceptional in the postseason. Nola will take the ball in Game 2, which means he can start one more time in this series if needed. He was electric in his first two playoff starts this season. 

He went seven scoreless innings against the Marlins, allowing just three hits. He only had three strikeouts in this game, but Miami was notorious for putting the ball in play all season. Even though the Marlins didn’t have a lot of dangerous hitters, there weren’t many easy outs in the lineup. 

He shined even brighter in his start against Atlanta. The pitcher struck out nine batters in 5.2 innings and held the Phillies to two earned runs over that span. Atlanta is the best offense in baseball, and Nola limited them in a must-win game. 

If Nola can strike out seven batters against the Braves, he can do the same to the Diamondbacks. He made one start against Arizona earlier in the year and struck out nine batters in 6.2 innings. 

Nola made some mistakes in this game, which led to runs for Arizona. However, the strikeout ability was evident throughout the content. We should see this once again on Tuesday.

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