Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, May 6-7

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets

My Pick: Tylor Megill Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tylor Megill (3-1, 4.11 ERA) will be getting the start for the Mets today. After spending most of the 2022 season in the Mets bullpen, he has earned himself a spot in this rotation. He has been a decent back-end starter, thanks to his ability to generate weak contact. It’s a part of his game that he changed in 2023, leading to lower strikeout totals. He had a season-high sevens strikeouts in his first start of the year against the Marlins, but he has failed to have more than four in a game since then. That is a big reason we like the bet.

The other big reason is Megill's poor control in 2023. He has walked three or more batters in three of his last four games. That is bad, especially considering he only pitched a combined 14 ⅔ innings. The issues with his control have batters being patient and letting the Mets’ pitcher get himself into trouble. The Rockies' offense has been solid this season, and they have the tenth fewest strikeouts in the league. That, combined with Megill’s issues, has us loving this under bet.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

My Pick: Yandy Diaz over 1.5 Hits (+179 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This is our favorite value prop of the weekend, as nobody is seeing the ball the better than Yandy Diaz (.324 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI). He has been raking at the plate and has gotten two hits in both of their previous two games. That has been helped by the fact that he doesn’t strike out, totaling just one over his last five games. That is what we call “locked-in,” and it is how he has had three multi-hit games over his previous six. That includes one game where he has pulled early with one hit already. Diaz is a hitting machine right now, and we will capitalize on it this weekend.

It’s not just Diaz’s 2023 stats that have us loving that bat. There is also the fact that he has a career .313 batting average over 16 at-bats against Domingo German (2-2, 4.46 ERA). Speaking of German, he has been a mixed bag this season. He is coming off a fantastic start against a struggling Guardians team, but he gave up ten combined runs in his two starts before that. He hasn’t looked like the same pitcher since his injury in 2022. That will be a significant problem against one of the hottest hitters in the league in Yandy Diaz.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates

My Pick: Jose Berrios Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+113 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Jose Berrios (2-3, 5.29 ERA) comes in today after being hit hard by the Boston Red Sox in his last start. However, Berrios had back-to-back seven-inning quality starts before then. We have seen his strikeout stuff, as he has crossed the five strikeout total three times this season. Berrios can be hard to read, and that will be a problem against a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t faced him much. 

Berrios is set up well to bounce back as he faces a Pirates team in free fall. They have lost their last five games, scoring a total of five runs during that stretch. It’s been ugly, and has been leading to more strikeouts. The previous two starters to face the Pirates struck out over eight batters and lasted seven innings. The Pirates are also in the bottom ten in the league in strikeouts, and they show no sign of turning things around. They will allow Berrios to go seven innings and easily reach the six-strikeout mark.