Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props May 3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays

My Pick: Shane McClanahan to record the win (+130 at PointsBet)

In our first MLB prop bet for Wednesday, we like Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan to record the win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. McClanahan has moved up the AL Cy Young odds list throughout this season so far, sitting behind only Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole on the list of Cy Young favorites. Here, he will help his cause by delivering another strong performance for his team at home.

So far this season, McClanahan is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA, with his numbers at home being even better than his overall stats. In three home starts this season, McClanahan has thrown 17 innings and allowed just three earned runs, posting an ERA of 1.59 at Tropicana Field. After picking up wins in five of his first six starts of this season, there is no reason to believe that the Rays and McClanahan will not get another victory on Wednesday.

Also encouraging for McClanahan is the fact that the Rays already showed that they could cool down the bats of the Pirates in the first game of this series. The Tampa Bay staff held Pittsburgh to just one run on five hits on Tuesday. Expect a similar performance from McClanahan on Wednesday, as we see plenty of value in him picking up a win at a nice plus price in front of a home crowd.

San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros

My Pick: Framber Valdez over 7.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)

On Wednesday, the Houston Astros will host the San Francisco Giants, with Framber Valdez taking the mound for Houston. The strikeout total for Valdez is set at 7.5, juiced to the under, and that presents a great opportunity to go the other way and take the over in this market. Against a team that has been striking out at a prolific rate, Valdez should be able to command counts and put batters away with regularity.

So far this season, no team has struck out more frequently than the San Francisco Giants have. They have struck out 305 times in 997 at-bats heading into Wednesday’s action, making them the only team in Major League Baseball to strike out over 300 times so far this year. With the Giants striking out in 30.59% of their at-bats on the year, Valdez should be able to strike out at least a batter per inning to cash this over.

Valdez, by the way, has been strong in the strikeout department early in the year for the Astros. He has struck out seven or more batters in three of his six starts so far this year, which is impressive given that pitchers typically do not go too deep into games early in the year. Against a team that strikes out more often than any other, the Astros ace should see a slight bump up from his normal strikeout numbers to cash this prop bet.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies

My Pick: Brewers to score over 6 runs (-105 at FanDuel)

Our final MLB prop bet for Wednesday comes from the National League matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies. In that contest, we like the Brewers to score over six runs, in what should be a higher-scoring game than the 3-2 affair these teams played to open this series. With a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound to start this one, the Brewers should be able to put runs on the board with impunity.

Starting this game for the Rockies is Kyle Freeland, who is 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA to begin the 2023 MLB season. But what jumps out the most about Freeland is the fact that he has already allowed seven home runs to opponents this year. Against a Brewers lineup that does have some potent bats like Rowdy Tellez, Freeland’s struggles keeping the ball in the park could show themselves once again here.

What’s more is the fact that the Brewers might need to score early and often to give their pitching staff a chance in this game. Starting on the bump for Milwaukee is Eric Lauer, who has a 3-2 record on the year but a less-than-stellar 5.19 ERA to his name. If Lauer continues to miss his spots and put runners on base, Colorado may be able to do enough scoring to force the Brewers to swing bigger and be more aggressive to try and keep up.