Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props June 28

Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners

My Pick: Logan Gilbert to record the win (EVEN at PointsBet)

Our first MLB prop bet on our card for Wednesday is for Logan Gilbert to pick up the win when the Washington Nationals take on the Seattle Mariners. Gilbert and the Mariners are favorites in the -250 range in this contest, and Gilbert should be the main beneficiary of that. He has won two of his three decisions in the month of June, and will close this month out strong against the lowly Nationals.

With the exception of his loss to the Los Angeles Angels earlier this month, Gilbert’s pitching performances have been great so far in June. He has allowed four runs in 19.1 innings of work in his other three starts during this month. That should put him in a great position to pick up the win in this contest, and at even money Gilbert is a solid value to get the job done in this contest.

Also working in Gilbert’s favor is the fact that he is taking on a Nationals team that is in the bottom-10 in runs scored on the year. The Nats are also 29th out of 30 teams in the major leagues in home runs on the year. That means Gilbert will keep the ball in the park en route to his sixth win of the season for Seattle.

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates

My Pick: Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)

Next up, look for Mitch Keller to go under the 5.5 strikeout mark for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, as the Pirates host the San Diego Padres at PNC Park. Keller is averaging over a strikeout per inning this season, as he has racked up 113 strikeouts in 99 innings of work. But he faces a Padres lineup here that is good at avoiding strikeouts, and is good at putting pressure on opposing starting pitching.

So far during the 2023 season, 16 teams have struck out more than the San Diego Padres. The Padres have struck out 8.6 times per game on average this season, but that is over the course of nine innings where bullpens are involved. San Diego should be able to keep those numbers down again over the first six innings or so against Keller in order to go under this strikeout prop total.

As for Keller, nearly half of his strikeouts on the season came during an incredible run of starts during the month of May. He struck out eight or more batters in all six games that he pitched in May, including a 13-strikeout game against the Baltimore Orioles during that month. But he has come back down to Earth slightly since then, and he will once again not match his torrid strikeout pace from June in this contest.

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves

My Pick: Kenta Maeda Over 5.5 Hits (-120 at DraftKings)

The final prop bet on our card for Wednesday’s MLB slate is for Kenta Maeda of the Minnesota Twins to allow at least six hits against the Atlanta Braves. Maeda has struggled mightily this season, coming into this contest with a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 6.86. Here, against one of the highest-scoring teams in all of baseball, Maeda should have a tough afternoon ahead of him in Atlanta against a Braves team that has won their first two games against Minnesota this week.

In five starts this season, Maeda has allowed eight or more hits twice already in 2023. While he is coming off of a win in his last start, that win came against a Detroit Tigers team that is one of the worst in all of baseball at scoring runs. Look for Maeda to revert to his form from his first four starts of the season against a Braves team that has racked up the second most hits in the league entering Wednesday’s play.

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• MLB Picks, June 28