Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, April 22-23

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

My Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr over 0.5 home runs (+675 at Caesars Sportsbook)

While Guerrero hits at a higher clip against lefties, all four of his home runs came against right-handed pitchers and on the road. That includes one last night in Yankee Stadium. The slugger has a .346 batting average, but his power has not ignited, with two over his last three games. We see the power surge coming as he rakes at the plate. Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, and we expect to see Geurerro take advantage of that again today.

Guerrero has faced Gerrit Cole more than any other Yankee pitcher. In 26 at-bats, he has a .346 average with two home runs and three strikeouts. That shows that Guerrero sees Cole well, though it hasn’t translated into much power. Considering he seems to be getting ready to go on a run, we love his chances to go deep against today.

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies

My Pick: Christopher Sanchez Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+106 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This is my favorite prop bet of the week for a couple of factors. The first is that this is Sanchez’s first start of the season. He is fresh off the IL and is making just the fourth start of his young career. He struggled in 2022, posting a 5.63 ERA over 40 innings. It is hard to imagine that he has been able to improve while battling an injury. 

The second factor is that the Rockies' offense has put up big runs early in the series' first two games. Though their numbers are better in the friendly confines of Coors Field, eight of their 18 home runs did come on the road. The top of their lineup is strong, and they are not short on power, even on the road. They will continue their hot starts today and tag Sanchez for at least three runs before he is pulled.

New York Mets vs San Fransisco Giants

My Pick: Pete Alonso 2+ Hits (+190 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nobody is seeing the ball better than Pete Alonso right now. He has home runs in back-to-back games and has a hit in nine of his last ten games. Alonso is a notoriously streaky player, so we are riding his current hot steak. It also doesn’t hurt that he posted a .321 batting average against the Giants last season.

Logan Webb has succeeded in limited action against Alonso, but he does not look like the same pitcher in 2023. He is 0-4 and has a 4.94 ERA in 2023. He is struggling to miss bats, and it’s resulting in a lot of hits. That is something that a hot Pete Alonso will capitalize on multiple times today.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

My Pick: Joe Musgrove Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Joe Musgrave will make his season debut for the Padres in today’s game. The San Diego legend broke his toe by dropping a kettlebell, keeping him out for the previous few months. While there hasn’t been talk about a pitch count, you have to assume he will have one. Musgrove has said the toe is still an issue, as he has yet to find a wrap that works for it. He is feeling the fatigue, meaning you shouldn’t expect him to stick around for long tonight.

The Diamondbacks are returning to Earth, but their offense is still scoring runs. They have the seventh-lowest strikeout total in the MLB, showing just how good their play discipline has been. Musgrove pitched well against the Diamondbacks last year, averaging just over six strikeouts per game. That was when he was healthy, but now he’ll deal with a fatigued team and an improved Diamondbacks lineup.