Monday was a great start to the week, as we hit four of our five prop bets. That has filled us with confidence for Tuesday’s picks, in which we’ve targeted five hitters. We’re fading two members of the ice-cold Blue Jays while targeting some of the hottest hitters in baseball to keep it going.
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The 23-year-old Marte appears to be having a breakout season. Less than 10 days ago, he had a five-hit game and has been raging hot ever since. In his last four games, Marte is 8 for 17 with three extra-base hits. Needless to say, he’s gone over 1.5 total bases in each of those four games, so we’ll take plus-odds on Marte staying red-hot. It doesn’t hurt that he and the Reds are facing Miles Mikolas.
Not only is Marte 2 for 6 with a double in his career against Mikolas, but the St. Louis starter is also rocking a 5.70 ERA. While Mikolas tossed six scoreless innings against the Braves in his last start, he’s otherwise had a hard time, which is why he should be vulnerable against a hot hitter like Marte.
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It’s getting to the point where Castellanos should be a target anytime the Phillies face a left-handed starter. He’s batting .387 with an OPS of 1.117 against lefties this season. Castellano is also in the midst of a four-game hitting streak, going over 1.5 total bases in three straight games. With lefty MacKenzie Gore starting for the Nats on Tuesday, Castellanos is in a good spot to extend his hitting streak and collect multiple bases.
Just for good measure, Castellanos is 7 for 22 (.318) with three extra-base hits in his career against Gore, which adds to our confidence in this pick.
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It’s rare for us to fade Guerrero, but the last week hasn’t gone well for him or the Blue Jays. He was 1 for 6 in Sunday’s doubleheader against the Yankees, and over his last six games, Guerrero is 3 for 21 (.143) with just one extra-base hit.
With an off-day on Monday, it’ll be that much more difficult for Guerrero to get going with a multi-hit game or an extra-base hit, making this feel like a safe bet. The task is even harder with Garrett Crochet starting for the Red Sox. In a small sample size, Guerrero is 0 for 6 in his career against Crochet, which is another reason to fade Guerrero on Tuesday.
Santander is another ice-cold hitter on the Blue Jays who we’re fading on Tuesday. Just like Guerrero, he’s 0 for 6 in his career against Crochet. Santander has four strikeouts in those six at-bats against Boston’s ace, so he’s been particularly anemic when facing Crochet. On the season, Santander is batting .179, so hitless games have been a common occurrence for him, yet we have plus-odds on this bet.
To his credit, Santander hit a home run in the second game of Sunday’s doubleheader. However, he was hitless in five straight games before that, so we’re going to operate under the assumption that he’s still ice-cold and could easily go hitless against Crochet and the Red Sox.
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Sheets isn’t a player we would normally target. But he’s 5 for 8 (.625) with two doubles in his career against San Francisco starter Logan Webb. Even if that’s a small sample, it still stands out, especially when you only need Sheets to get one hit. Granted, Sheets has cooled off over the past week following a brilliant start to the season.
However, he snapped a four-game hitless streak on Sunday and is facing a pitcher he’s enjoyed success against on Tuesday.
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