On any given day, you never know the players or teams where you’ll find the most value with MLB props. For Monday, we were surprised to find members of the Twins and Athletics were the best options. Admittedly, these may not be the most obvious targets, but we feel like these are the best MLB prop picks on Monday.
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Buxton isn’t having his best season, but he’s been hitting this bet with regularity lately. As the No. 2 hitter in Minnesota’s lineup, he’s a good candidate to both score runs and drive them in. Over his last 10 games, Buxton has five multi-hit games and eight RBI, helping him to go over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI seven times during those 10 games. He’s also 2 for 5 with a double in his career against Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. While that sample is too small to move the needle much, it’s a sign that Buxton is poised to keep producing for the Twins in a variety of ways.
The Guardians are sputtering offensively right now, scoring three runs or less in four of their last five games. That makes this a good time to target the starting pitcher who’s facing them on Monday. In Ober’s case, he has a strong track record against the Guards, as the hitters on Cleveland’s roster are hitting a combined .116 against him.
Cleveland’s spark plug, Steven Kwan, is 0 for 12 in his career against Ober, which speaks volumes. Also, Ober’s 5.04 ERA is a little misleading because he’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts. It’s his disastrous start in his first outing of the season that has caused his inflated ERA. He’s been solid and should be set up for success against a struggling Cleveland lineup.
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Patrick Corbin is starting for the Rangers, and while we’re not going to fade him, it’d be foolish not to target at least one hitter facing him. We’ve landed on Urias, who is 5 for 13 (.385) in his career against Corbin. Urias is also in the middle of a four-game hitting streak, which has included home runs in back-to-back games. Also, in the 11 games this month in which Urias has had at least two at-bats, he’s registered at least one hit nine times. Considering the odds we’re getting for this bet, especially with Corbin on the mound, this feels like a safe bet.
Outside of the occasional home run, Garcia continues to have a rough season, batting just .211. He got things going earlier this month but appears to be in the midst of another slide, going hitless in three of his last six games. Garcia is also striking out an inordinate number of times, which shows that he’s not seeing the ball well or getting a lot of solid contact. The kicker is that he’s just 4 for 24 (.167) with seven strikeouts in his career against JP Sears, who starts for the A’s on Monday. With plus odds, this is a good time to fade Garcia.
Speaking of Sears, he has a solid track record against several members of the Rangers, not just Garcia. He’s also fresh off a start against Texas in which he allowed just five hits over five innings. In fact, Sears has conceded just two runs on eight hits in 11 innings across his last two starts. He’s found his groove and is giving up less than a hit per inning on the season.
Equally important, the Texas lineup is in a funk at the moment, with the Rangers losing four of their last five games. Not surprisingly, they’ve been held to two runs or less in four of those five games. Even though he’s facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts, the Rangers have been so bad that Sears should have no trouble putting together another strong outing.
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