Saturday is for sluggers - at least this Saturday is. Of our five MLB props today, three of them are banking on a notable corner infielder to have a big day. We’re also fading a pitcher in another prop pick, so look for plenty of offensive fireworks when you make your prop bets on Saturday.
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Even with a .195 average, Walker is worth targeting on Saturday. In a limited sample size against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, he’s 4 for 5 with two extra-base hits. That history should make Walker confident despite his poor start to the season. Plus, Walker is starting to show signs of coming out of his slump. He has at least one hit in four of his last six games and is 5 for 10 with two extra-base hits over his last three games. Despite the poor overall numbers, Walker is trending in the right direction and has a favorable matchup Saturday.
There is no doubt that Witt is heating up right now. The last time he had a hitless game was April 7. However, we’re going to fade him just a little on Saturday because he’s also been strikeout prone lately, going down on strikes at least once in three of his last four games. Kansas City’s best hitter is also facing a tough matchup on Saturday against Framber Valdez. In his career against Valdez, Witt is just 1 for 12 (.083) with five strikeouts. Based on that track record, if Witt faces Valdez three times in this game, he’s bound to strike out at least once. With Valdez always being a threat to rack up a high strikeout total, this is a good bet.
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Walking batters has been a huge issue for Holmes this season. While 2.5 walks is a high threshold for most starting pitchers, the plus odds still make this bet appealing. Keep in mind that in the four games that Holmes has pitched at least four innings, he’s walked four batters three times. Holmes just can’t seem to get out of his own way. At the same time, he’s facing an Arizona lineup that leads the majors in walks, averaging 4.4 free passes per game. With the Diamondbacks being so patient and Holmes struggling with his control, the stars are aligned for Holmes to walk at least three batters on Saturday.
There aren’t a lot of hitters with a good track record against Merrill Kelly. In fact, most of Atlanta’s hitters have poor numbers against him. However, Riley is 4 for 9 with two doubles and a home run in his career against Kelly. Of course, we’re also targeting Riley because he’s heating up during a six-game hitting streak. Over his last four games, in particular, Riley is 8 for 15 with five RBI. Collecting two hits is on the table for him, given his history against Kelly. Also, Riley bats second in Atlanta’s lineup, so he’s perfectly positioned to score runs or drive them in. One way or another, he looks like a safe bet to go over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI.
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Freeman will be licking his chops to face Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller on Saturday. He’s 8 for 15 (.533) with two extra-base hits in his career against Keller, so this is a favorable matchup for him. Frankly, any bet involving Freeman in this game is worth considering based on that. We decided that over 1.5 total bases was the safest option because a multi-hit game and an extra-base hit are both on the table. Keep in mind that Freeman has four multi-hit games and six extra-base hits over his last nine games. He’s also coming off a two-hit game on Friday, so regardless of what the suddenly struggling Dodgers (losers of four of their last five games) do, Freeman is set up for success.
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