Pitchers dominate our selections for prop bets on Tuesday. In most cases, we’re backing that particular pitcher to dominate. Of course, in one case, we’re fading a pitcher while also offering a home run prop based on that pitcher’s struggles, which should make Tuesday an interesting day for prop bets.
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Lodolo has come out of the gate absolutely on fire this season. Across his first three starts, he’s rocking a 0.96 ERA. More importantly, he’s allowed just 12 total hits over 18.2 innings, so he should have no problem keeping the Mariners to a low hit total on Tuesday.
Randy Arozarena is the only player on Seattle’s roster who has faced Lodolo before, giving the lefty a big edge against hitters who are unfamiliar with facing him. The Mariners also have a rather sluggish .210 team batting average. Despite Seattle winning four in a row, the Mariners scored just three runs on six hits Sunday before having Monday off. They figure to be a little rusty and will be facing a pitcher who has been dominant lately.
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Luzardo is one of the biggest surprises in the big leagues thus far. He’s been sensational over his first three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He’s been particularly impressive over his last two starts, covering 13 innings while allowing just one run on eight hits.
The lefty did that against the Dodgers and Braves, so he should be in good shape to handle the Giants. Granted, San Francisco’s lineup has been hot as of late, including a 10-run performance on Monday. But Luzardo has been on fire and proven capable of pitching deep into games. Even if he’s not quite as dominant, the Phillies should give him the benefit of the doubt, allowing Luzardo to complete at least six full innings.
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At the end of a long and amazing career, it looks like Morton is cooked. Through three starts, the 41-year-old has an ERA of 8.78 and a WHIP of 1.88. That is beyond concerning for both him and the Orioles. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his three starts, which is why we’re targeting him to do the same on Tuesday.
While the Guardians don’t have the most dynamic lineup in baseball, they are at least middle of the pack. In Morton’s defense, he’s faced some strong offensive teams early in the season. But that excuse can only hold so much water. A better explanation is that a 41-year-old pitcher has simply run out of gas late in his career, which is why we’ll fade Morton and bet on his struggles to continue.
If we’re fading Morton, we might as well take a chance on one of Cleveland’s hitters to do some damage. In his career against Morton, Santana is 4 for 11 with two doubles and two home runs. When he gets hits against Morton, there is usually plenty of power behind those hits.
That makes him an excellent - and somewhat undervalued - player to target with a home run prop. Even is Santana doesn’t boast the same home run power he once had, he can still go deep. Santana already has two home runs in 15 games this season, so it’s not farfetched to think that he can hit a long ball Tuesday with a favorable matchup against Morton.
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It’s been a great start to the season for both Flaherty and the Tigers. Upon his return to Detroit, Flaherty is rocking a 1.62 ERA after three starts, conceding just nine hits over 16.2 innings. Surprisingly, he’s only been the winning pitcher once, with the Tigers finding a way to lose two of his three starts.
But with Detroit winning eight of its last 10 games, Flaherty is in good shape on Tuesday, especially against a Milwaukee lineup that’s scored two runs or less in three of its last five games. The Brewers have looked rather pitiful lately, so they may not put up much of a fight against Flaherty. That should allow Detroit’s ace to dominate yet again and pick up another win.
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