Monday is definitely one of those days in which we’re swinging for the fences. Four of our five props are targeting hitters, including three bets that have plus-odds. Ironically, we’re fading a couple of hitters who aren’t set up for success. Nevertheless, we’re taking some chances to open the week, hoping to his some props with lucrative odds.
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The Giants have a tough task on Monday, facing Taijuan Walker, who has allowed just eight hits over 10.2 innings. That’s even worse news for Chapman, who is 0 for 8 in his career against Walker. Coupled with his poor start to the season, Chapman is the ideal player to fade in this situation. He’s batting just .184 on the season and has gone hitless in six straight games. One could argue that Chapman is too good of a hitter to keep that streak going much longer. But facing Walker obviously isn’t a good matchup for him, and the odds are too good not to take a chance on this bet.
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We’re just as surprised as you that Houck is the only pitcher we’re targeting on Monday. With a 4.41 ERA, Houck has been rather average this season. However, he’s coming off his best start of the season, giving up one run over 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays. Houck also has strong career numbers against most members of the Rays. He also allowed one run or less in two of the three starts he made against Tampa last season. The Rays have also been up and down offensively this year, putting Houck in a good position to have a strong outing on Monday.
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His move to the outfield hasn’t distracted Altuve to the plate this season. His 0-for-4 performance on Sunday was just the second time this season that Altuve went hitless in a game. He’s also gone over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in 10 of 13 games before Sunday. He’s still Houston’s leadoff hitter and a great spark plug at the top of the order, so Altuve is impacting games in multiple ways. The kicker is that Altuve has posted impressive career numbers against Sonny Gray, going 13 for 39 (.333) against him. That means there is no reason to doubt his ability to have a bounce-back game on Monday and hit this prop bet.
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The Cubs are likely excited to be facing Dylan Cease, who is coming off a disastrous outing against the A’s that caused his ERA to jump to 7.98. But that may not apply to Happ, who is 1 for 18 (.056) with nine strikeouts in his career against Cease. That’s not a small sample size, which is why it’s worth fading Happ for plus odds on Monday. In fairness, Happ went 3 for 5 with a double on Sunday, giving him some confidence at the plate. But even with at least one hit in seven of his last nine games, Happ is only hitting .222 on the season and went 1 for 12 in his three games before Sunday. Given his history against Cease, Happ could easily have another hitless game on Monday.
While Happ has dreadful numbers against Cease, Tucker has been great against him, going 5 for 11 (.455) with two doubles against Cease. Admittedly, that’s a small sample size, but Tucker has also been one of the best hitters in baseball to this point in the season. He’s batting .328 with an OPS of 1.108. On top of that, Tucker has had four multi-hit games over his last six games, including three extra-base hits during that span. In other words, Tucker is a threat to collect multiple bases on any given day right now. Given his career numbers against Cease, he’s an ideal player to target for a prop bet.
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