We were a perfect 5 for 5 on prop bets yesterday. Isn’t that a great way to start the week? Needless to say, we’re filled with confidence heading into Tuesday. We were a little more aggressive on Tuesday but still focused on familiar players who are reliable and consistent. Plus, we’re trying to take advantage of Patrick Corbin’s return to the mound.
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Bregman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, collecting 10 hits over his last five games. That stretch includes five doubles and two home runs, so he’s hitting with a lot of power and a lot of confidence right now. Granted, he has just two career at-bats against Toronto starter Easton Lucas, but one of those at-bats was a double for Bregman. Simply facing a lefty is enough for us to think that he’s going to stay hot with another multi-hit game or another extra-base hit.
Crochet has looked good for Boston early in the season, yielding just two runs over 13 innings of work. He made eight scoreless innings against the Orioles look effortless in his last start, which should bode well for his chances against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Crochet gave up just two hits over six scoreless innings when he faced Toronto last season, so it’s clear the Blue Jays don’t have him figured out. Plus, the Blue Jays have scored just nine total runs over their last four games. They’ll be vulnerable against a high-quality pitcher like Crochet, who should be able to hold them to one run or less.
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Against all logic, Patrick Corbin was given another chance to pitch in the big leagues, and he’ll make his season debut for the Rangers on Tuesday. When Corbin pitches, the best thing anyone can do is back the hitters he’ll be facing. His penultimate start in 2024 came against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, with Corbin giving up five runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings. It could be a similar story in Tuesday’s game.
Based on all of our options, we opted to go with Hoerner, who is 5 for 12 (.417) in his career against Corbin. He also has an RBI in four straight games, going 6 for 16 at the plate during that span. Hoerner hits in the middle of the lineup behind some other Cubs who have a good track record against Corbin, so he should have some great RBI opportunities in this game.
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Castillo has put together two solid starts early in the season. However, he’s conceded two walks in each of his two starts. With plus-odds for this prop, we’re going to bank on Castillo giving up multiple walks again. In 30 starts last year, Castillo allowed over 1.5 walks 14 times, so there is definitely good value in these odds. Meanwhile, the Astros are showing signs of life offensively and have drawn at least four walks in back-to-back games. They’ll be patient and willing to take walks against Castillo.
Even if he’s not a regular, Polanco is 10 for 24 (.417) early in the season. In the six games he’s started this year, Polanco has recorded at least one hit. Yet, he has rather favorable odds to get just a single hit on Tuesday. The kicker is that he’s 12 for 25 (.480) in his career against Houston’s Framber Valdez. As long as Polanco is in the starting lineup, which he should be given his history with Valdez, he’s a safe bet to get at least one hit.
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