Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Monday is the Time to Fade Veteran Hitters and Trust Veteran Pitchers

Monday begins a new week and a chance to wipe the slate clean. But instead of banking on the success of others, we’re going to bet on failure. We have three capable hitters whom we’ve chosen to fade on Monday, as well as two veteran pitchers we think are set up for a good game. That’s our MLB prop strategy, at least for today.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Rangers vs. Cubs (7:40 PM, EST)

Nathan Eovaldi Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-105) at bet365 Sportsbook

Eovaldi has already made two starts this season and has looked fantastic. He’s already covered 15 innings across his two starts, yielding just two runs on seven hits. After pitching a complete game I his last start, the Rangers probably won’t push Eovaldi too far on Monday.

But that means he’ll have fewer innings to let the Cubs get to him. He has a strong track record against most of Chicago’s hitters, who are batting a combined .185 against Eovaldi in their careers. That’s a strong indicator that hits against him could be few and far between.

Marcus Semien Under 0.5 Hits (+160) at bet365 Sportsbook

On paper, Semien has a favorable matchup on Monday against lefty Justin Steele. However, Semien is off to a terrible start in 2025, going 5 for 37 (.135) thus far. That includes going just 1 for 6 against lefties. In fact, Semien is also 0 for 5 in his career against Steele, who is one lefty he hasn’t been able to hit in the past.

Even a recent three-game hitting streak ended on Sunday, so Semien is far from out of the woods. If you want the safe approach, you can take Semien to be under 1.5 total bases. But we’re going to take the high-value prop bet on Monday and bank on Semien to continue his struggles and go hitless.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Orioles vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 PM, EST)

Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 Hits (+165) at bet365 Sportsbook

Suarez is another hitter who’s off to a poor start in 2025, so we might as well fade him while we can. Actually, Suarez was outstanding in March, hitting four home runs in the first three games of the season. However, he’s just 2 for 20 in April, including a 0 for 10 series against the Nationals over the weekend. Suarez now has just one hit in his last 16 at-bats, so there is value in fading him and betting on another hitless game.

The kicker is that he’s 0 for 11 with seven strikeouts in his career against Baltimore starter Zach Eflin. That makes it tough to envision Monday being the day that Suarez breaks out of his slump.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Padres vs. Athletics (10:05 PM, EST)

Luis Severino Over 17.5 Outs (-145) at bet365 Sportsbook

Severino has had two different types of start this season. He opened the campaign with six scoreless innings against the Mariners, only to follow that up by giving up six runs over six innings against the Cubs. But in both cases, Severino was able to complete six full innings of work, which is why we’re targeting him for this bet. Last time out, Severino allowed three runs in the first inning and two more in the third inning.

Yet, the A’s stuck with him, and he settled down enough to get through six innings. That’s a sign that the club trusts Severino and will give him plenty of slack. Therefore, good or bad, Severino has a chance to pitch deep against the Padres on Monday.

Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (-130) at bet365 Sportsbook

Bogaerts is hoping that Severino will be out of Monday’s game sooner rather than later. He’s 3 for 31 (.097) with eight strikeouts in his career against Severino. That’s the biggest reason why we’re fading him on Monday. He’s also just 3 for 15 with no runs scored and just one RBI over his last four games. Bogaerts has cooled off considerably after a fast start to the season.

Normally, we would target him to go over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI. However, since he’s cooled off in recent days and has been horrible against Severino in his career, he’s the ideal player to fade in this spot.

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